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OPENING TIP
Wednesdayâs game 5 of the Bucks-Magic series turned out to be a lot more interesting than anyone expected, didnât it?
As we sat and watched, the Fox Sports Wisconsin team of Jim Paschke, Marques Johnson, and Zora Stephenson suddenly found themselves on air (apparently with about 90 seconds of warning) bringing us not a basketball game but a unique moment in the history of sport in America. They comported themselves with skill and dignity. At times Stephenson appeared to be holding back tears.
In the time since then, no one has been shy about getting their âtakeâ on the record. There has been a lot of celebration of what a brave stance the Bucks took. There has also been a fair amount of cynicism, from âThey can do it because they are richâ to âWhat did they actually accomplish?â And those are perhaps reasonable stances, but they were far from the Bucksâ minds that afternoon.
If we look not at what it all means, and instead at simply what happened, itâs hard not to be reminded of Rosa Parks, in one specific way. Â
The Bucksâ decision was not part of a strategy, and it was not done in expectation of word spreading around the world or going down in history. It was a moment where a small group of people could no longer stand to do nothing, and in that moment, they chose to do what they thought was right.
It was simple and honest, and that is why it resonated.
We do not know its place in history. Ask again in 50 years. One thing seems certain though: the age of âathletes should stick to sportsâ is over. The next talking head or TV executive who trots that out is going to get laughed out of the room.
TUNING OUT
As the sports world eyed the NBA bubbleâs rapidly dissolving surface tension, pundits on Twitter raced to put in their two cents. And so it was inevitable that the world's foremost Twitter pundit and TV ratings expert would chime in:
This is hardly the first time that The Donald has waded into sports culture wars to score points, but he isnât altogether wrong about the ratings.
In an article in the Athletic, Ethan Strauss portrays the situation as a âserious viewership problem [the NBA] needs to fix.â The premier Saturday night matchup of the first round, Lakers-Trail Blazers, averaged 3.8 million viewers this year, down approximately 20% from the comparable Warriors-Clippers game last April. This follows reporting in February that showed ratings are down 12% year over year and suggests declining interest in the league. But before the wailing and gnashing of teeth commenced at STL headquarters, we decided to dispatch our field reporter to beat the bushes.
The report he issued:
Despite the (quite real) ratings declines, the NBA isnât particularly worried nor should it be. In a since deleted response to a Tucker Carlson jab, Mark Cuban noted:
The NBAâs significantly younger viewer demographic is a headwind for TV ratings because younger viewers are much more likely to be cord-cutters or âcord-neversâ and because younger consumers have a much wider diet of sports media consumption (think Youtube, ESPN.Com, social media). But having younger viewers is a tailwind when it comes to, well, the actual value of the NBA, and this is where the NBA shines.
Overall TV viewership in the 18-49 demographic has declined 36% during the past year but just 13% for NBA broadcasts. The NBA is actually growing its share of Gen-Zers and millennials, and despite all their TikToks and Faceytweets, this a sign of the strength of the NBA brand.
Across sports, larger ad budgets are chasing fewer traditional TV viewers. Regular season NFL ad spending has increased from $2.2bn in 2010 ($123 per viewer) to $4.5bn in 2020 ($271 per viewer), even as viewership declined. So too the NBA, and franchise valuations have exploded in tandem: average NBA franchise values increased 8.5x since 2003 (from $248mn to $2.12bn) per Forbes.
Billionaire investor willingness to pile into the asset class suggests that they like the NBAâs chances to lure viewers from Fortnite better than Baseball or the NFLâs chances to lure them out of the nursing home. (Note to our newsletterâs NFL & MLB fans: Not talking about you, obviously. You look fantastic!) Valuation is more about the future than the past: the NBAâs relative strength with younger viewers and its ability to provide these viewers new ways to consume NBA content points to a bright future ahead.Â
Take game highlights: WarnerMedia VP Peter Scott speculated that the right to show highlights of NBA gamesâthe format preferred by younger viewersâcould one day exceed the value of live TV rights. Or international rights: unlike domestic competitors, the NBA is hugely popular overseas, but international rights only account for 14% of total rights fees, compared to 46% for the Premier League and 44% for La Liga. Either of these could add billions per year to the leagueâs coffers. Increased âover the topâ penetration and monetization, real estate redevelopment (a la the Warriorsâ new mixed use development), eSports, and AR/VR viewing experiences add to potential future growth.
All this said, the NBA cannot be complacent: Premier League domestic rights fees fell 8% in the latest contract, covering 2019-2022, the first-ever decline on record. And without additional revenue streams, lower ratings will eventually hit the NBA in the wallet. If someday that comes to pass, we feel sure that former president Trump will keep us all appraised.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Russian bots are so done with the NBA.
STL INVESTIGATES
Save the Lottery has learned that Kevin Durant still has a burner Twitter account!
And so, in the tradition of only the finest and most ethical journalistic publications, STL is offering a cash bounty: one hundred of the finest US dollars to be Venmoâd to the account of anyone delivering information that leads to the capture of KDâs new account.
Additionally, your name will appear on the finest pages of a future Save The Lottery publication, and be enshrined in the STL hall of fame, which is definitely a thing that exists.
AT THE BUZZER
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