😭 March Sadness
Why aren't the best NBA prospects in the tourney? And which fan bases are easiest to troll?
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OPENING TIP
All-Star Weekend is in the books, and if nothing else serves as a reminder of how good these guys are.
Here is a gif from the game of Dame Lillard hitting a shot from half court:
followed by Steph Curry hitting a shot 10 seconds later from the same spot, because why not?
We don’t care what anyone says, that Curry kid can shoot.
Alright that is definitely enough All-Star coverage. This coming weekend is Selection Sunday! And America is beginning to feel the grip of March Mild Enthusiasm™. In the past, the NCAA Tournament served as a preview for Who’s Next in the NBA -- from Michael Jordan’s 1982 game winner to AD curb-stomping all opposition on the way to the title.
But today, aside from serving as the one moment when all of America engages in some good natured gambling at the same time, the tournament is no longer a showcase of top young basketball talent. And things are probably going to get much worse. We will explain.
IN WHICH WE STROLL DOWN MEMORY LANE
At some point after the beginning, there were the Magic Johnsons and Larry Birds. College players who were already household names by the time they arrived in the pros, and who entered well developed and often ready to make an impact. And it was good.
But it was not to last. Skyrocketing player salaries led to a growing realization on the part of players that four years spent in college was four years of forfeited earnings. It was just a matter of time before players wanted to skip college altogether.
In time, Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett made the jump from prep school to the pros, and teams had no choice but to go with them. Even though the players rarely made an immediate impact (Kobe averaged 7 points a game his entire rookie year), KG and Kobe’s early success incited massive FOMO among reluctant NBA GMs. As teams became increasingly comfortable taking on raw, moldable talent, more players began to make the jump early.
By 2005, the floodgates were fully open: 9 players were drafted out of high school, and many more signed with an agent in the hopes of being drafted. In response, the NBA decided to institute a “one-and-done” rule: to be draft eligible, a player must (1) be at least 19 and (2) have had at least one season of basketball elapse since he graduated high school.
Theoretically, the NBA’s new plan appeased both angry college basketball fans and exasperated front offices. In reality, the NBA had just succeeded in cutting the baby in half. College fans couldn’t get attached to a one year rental player, and pro teams didn’t find the players to be all that much more prepared. Thus, we...
RETURN TO THE PRESENT(ISH) DAY
It is 2019. Adam Silver is explaining to the Washington Post that there is a certain hypocrisy to insisting that it’s better for a prospect to attend three college courses, then drop out, than to take the time and really prepare for the draft, the biggest moment of their lives. He indicates that while it will need to be collectively bargained, we could see the end of the one-and-done rule by 2023. There is talk of a “Mega-Draft”: the year the rule is dropped, all current college players as well as a fresh crop of high schoolers would all be eligible at the same time.
Then a funny thing happened. The league and the players got together to hammer out the new CBA, and it turned out that the teams weren’t all that excited about drafting high school kids again. GMs started to get flashbacks to all those high profile evaluation mistakes that cost people their jobs. And the players were less enthused about fighting for the rights of future competitors for their roster spots. So nothing happened, and Woj has reported it is expected to remain at least through 2025.
BACK TO THE FUTURE
Where does that leave today’s top high school prospects? With millions of dollars at stake, there continues to be immense pressure to sidestep the college path.
Necessity, as they say, is the mother of invention. Recent prospects have pursued a wide range of alternatives to the “one and done” route. Some still spend a year in college: Cade Cunningham, this year’s consensus top pick, has led a turnaround of the fortunes of Oklahoma State. Others, such as LaMelo Ball, RJ Hampton, and Emmanuel Mudiay, spent a year on a professional team overseas where they can get paid and be featured playing against grown men. Darius Bazley skipped college for a year long, million-dollar internship at New Balance.
But the biggest new player is the NBA itself. The NBA has long had bigger dreams for its minor league system the Gatorade-branded “G League”, and previously offered graduating high schoolers up to $125,000 to spend their ‘gap year’ playing there. They hadn’t found many takers. But last year, the League office had an idea: “What if,” they asked, “we offered a lot more money?” And what do you know, some of last year’s top high schoolers including Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and Isaiah Todd were enticed to join the newly-created G League Ignite (imagine an AAU all star team with Jarrett Jack as a player-coach).
Over the next few years we will bear witness to an epic tug of war over what the development pipeline to the NBA looks like. The teams want players who are easy to evaluate, and as NBA ready as possible when they arrive. The prospects themselves want access to the league, or at least a paycheck, as soon as possible: they all fear the fate of Kentucky’s BJ Boston, who has seen his draft stock evaporate over the course of an ill-fated no-longer one-and-done season. The NCAA wants players in college, and for as long as possible, to keep the massive checks from Turner and CBS coming. Current NBA players have a theoretical affinity for their high school brethren, but will go only so far to protect their eventual replacements.
Who wins out? It’s tough to pick a winner. Foreign leagues have delivered two of the top five prep to pros in the last twenty years in Luka and LaMelo, but expecting your average eighteen year old from College Park to thrive on their own with the Guangdong Southern Tigers is a tall order. New options like Overtime Elite and the G League Ignite also present plenty of risk for a high school senior with generational wealth within reach.
It’s safe to say that the future won’t be a return to the glory days of the NCAA. The current collegiate system hasn’t proven all that successful at educating people, preparing players for the league, or offering a consistently high level of play for evaluators. So while we can still enjoy cheering for Cinderella, and some players will still let nostalgia bias their decision making and opt for the college experience, the days of Bird/Magic duels for the NCAA Championship are likely long gone.
TWEETS OF THE WEEK
Hmm, Yuta, where do I remember that name from?
Interesting choice, Japanese market!
STL INVESTIGATES: Who are the most trollable fan bases?
We have to admit, we’re suckers for artful trolling. And what Vernon Maxwell has been doing to Utah Jazz fans lately definitely qualifies:
Jazz fans, as expected, aren’t happy. But then, they rarely are, having earned a reputation as the most racist fans in the NBA after repeated incidents with players (the reason Maxwell has directed his ire in their direction). But it made us wonder: what makes a fan base easy to troll? (We’re asking for a friend.)
Basketball success plays a part -- but not exactly how you think. Sad sack franchises, after all, can’t even be bothered to get upset. They are resigned to their fate. Why rise to the bait?
And a city’s identity plays another part. “Cool” cities for NBA players, even without huge amounts of historical success, aren’t bothered either. There’s too much else going on!
So it’s really the confluence of two things:
Your team is (relatively) successful (but not too successful); and
Your city is not cool
Plotting these on separate axes let’s us zoom in on the Zone of Insecurity. We used STL’s proprietary rankings for team success and city coolness to produce the chart below. (If you find yourself becoming upset because you assume our coolness rankings are arbitrary, that is an excellent indication your city is uncool.)
So there you have it - now you know which fan bases are easiest to troll! We encourage you to use your newfound information judiciously. With our newsletter comes great responsibility. Happy tweeting!
AT THE BUZZER
ESPN strikes 7 year deal with NHL. Even the shaky NHL saw their rights fees double over their previous deal. Expect the NBA to clean up when their contracts are renewed in a few years. (WSJ, $)
Hollinger: re-drafting the 2019 NBA draft. The top 4 stays the same, but thereafter things go haywire (Athletic, $)
Meyers Leonard gets in hot water for antisemitic language while streaming ‘Call of Duty’ (ESPN)
How Leon Rose built the Knicks. We aren’t sure if Knicks fans should be optimistic or pessimistic after reading this. (NY Post)
More Top Shot coverage. Someone please shoot us. (Athletic, $)