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OPENING TIP
So, are you enjoying the breathless coverage, unexpected plot twists, and even occasionally actual basketball games? …What? No we’re not talking about the NCAA tournament! It’s the the NBA trade deadline, and with it silly season is finally here in earnest. Thanks to the ESPN trade machine, every wannabe GM in the New England area can find a CBA-legal way to get whomever they desire into a Celtics uniform.
But even if we look at plausible deals, only a tiny fraction will actually sneak in ahead of the deadline. There is a reason we hear that Boston’s Trader Danny was this close to landing Kawhi, Paul George, Anthony Davis, etc. (Here is a ranking of the trades Danny assures us he was just about to make).
And that reason isn’t that Danny Ainge is greedy (okay it is, but it isn’t just that). Trades in the NBA are notoriously hard to line up.
It’s fun to imagine NBA GMs as glorified Wall Street bond traders, only taking time off from their detailed fundamentals analysis to outfox each other while simultaneously drowning strippers in their vacation home swimming pools during coke binges. But the reality is quite a bit less exciting. There is a general high level consensus on how good most NBA players are that most GMs share.
Despite the hype around the trade deadline, most NBA trades are smaller deals with teams responsibly rebalancing their portfolios. But even with similar financial constraints and similar information, trades do happen. What are the key factors driving teams to deal?
The team’s timeline. Some teams are ready to win now. Others are building for the future. Still others are the Orlando Magic and never do either. It’s common to assume that this is the biggest driver of player movement, and it might be. Maybe.
The GM’s job security. Is your owner sick of picking in the lottery? Does he think your team has a deep run in them? Most GMs know their job depends on meeting those expectations, and some truly terrible trades take place for just this reason. Conversely, they know that being seen as ‘losing’ a trade could be just as damaging. We suspect that this is an even bigger factor than number one and likely contributes to more trades NOT happening than any other factor.
Cash money. The NBA’s luxury tax is an incredibly punitive marginal rate on a team’s final few roster spots. Faced with the prospect of paying the tax, GMs must answer to owners, “Do we really need this guy?” Sometimes, the answer is no.
Player preferences. Some players hate cold weather. Others prefer New York’s strip clubs to Houston’s. More and more often, the best players are able to force their way to where they want to be. Ever wonder where all those tips that Woj or Shams share come from? A huge number are from players agents trying to grease the wheels.
Alright. If we’re satisfied with our list of motivations (who wants do a trade), we can move on to try to figure out which deals are actually going to get done. What are the types of trades that actually happen?
Bundling and unbundling. The old, “I’ll trade you these three SHINY quarters for that lousy crumpled-up dollar” trade. It usually doesn’t make sense to acquire four guys whose combined production equals LeBron’s when you can only start five players, so there is often also an additional time value component to these (see below).
Past example: Chris Paul for Ricky Rubio, Kelly Oubre, Ty Jerome and a pick.
Likely 2021 candidate: Aaron GordonTrading now for later. Your star is leaving in free agency, and you’re about to be rebuilding. Why not get what you can now? Check our list of motivations to understand the star for draft capital trade. Timeline? ✅ Team getting star wants to win now, team getting picks is rebuilding. Cash money? ✅ Team getting star is okay paying the tax, team trading him ducks it. GM job security? ✅ GM getting star can tell owner he went big, GM getting picks can’t be judged until we know who those picks become, can he? It all fits so perfectly you’d think these types of trades would be super popular, and what do you know, they are!
Past example: Paul George for SGA, Gallo, and a boatload of picks.
Likely 2021 candidate: Kyle LowryDifferent evaluations of players. The challenge trade. Fans love these, but they are super rare. For one, it’s often easy to pick a winner, and that is a recipe for a GM to get fired. For another, there is information asymmetry. How do you convince yourself you have a better feel for a player than the team that sees him in practice every day? Usually there is draft compensation included to even the scales.
Past example: D’Angelo Russell for Andrew Wiggins and a first.
Likely 2021 candidate: Lonzo BallFinancial flexibility. The overpaid player trade. “The owner says he won’t refinance his yacht to pay Carmelo’s luxury tax bill.” This was a staple of Sam Hinkie’s arsenal (collecting picks for absorbing bad contracts) but has become less prominent as contracts have gotten shorter and cap sheets have gotten cleaner. This can also take the form of teams deciding to move pending free agents they can’t afford to resign.
Past example: Carmelo Anthony and a first for Dennis Schroder.
Likely 2021 candidate: Evan FournierDifferent Team Needs. Usually role player swaps. Are you the Knicks with a roster of mostly power forwards? Maybe we can pry one away from you for this backup point guard…
Past example: Dewayne Dedmon for Tony Snell.
Likely 2021 candidate: Kelly Oubre
So the next time you read about that four team mega-deal that is about to go down, you can consult your handy STL checklist to see if it has a snowball's chance in Phoenix. Our advice is to sit back and relax, enjoy the flurry of Shams and Woj tweets, and hope your GM isn’t worried about his contract. When the Celtics almost but don’t quite land Bradley Beal tomorrow, Danny Ainge is sure to let you know all about it.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Your weekly reminder that NBA players are at another level than us mere mortals.
AT THE BUZZER
NBA angling for a huge increase in TV rights fees in next contract (CNBC)
The long-term impact of COVID on NBA players (Truehoop)
Re-grading NBA mega-trades of yore