OPENING TIP
The NBA is back, and in some ways it’s like it never left. James Harden walked out of a strip club into a 44 point, 17 assist night. “Regular Season P” is filling it up from outside. And the Knicks are still the Knicks.
Despite these comforting signs of normality, a lot has changed, and the best way to get a handle on it all is usually to follow the money. Regular season win total over/unders are out in Vegas, and STL brings them to you, along with a look at how they compare to last season’s results. (Note: because neither this season nor last featured a full 82 games, we’re using win percentage as our metric of choice rather than wins.)
Three trends stand out from these predictions:
Recovering from injury. A healthy Steph Curry led gamblers to bet big on the Warriors improving (although they may be a bit nervous about that line if they saw the first two Dubs games this year), and KD looks like he stepped out of a time machine and into a Nets jersey, as reflected by a big projected win improvement.
Roster moves. The Hawks spent big and the Wizards traded John Wall’s albatross contract for Russell Westbrook. Conversely, the Thunder have divested themselves of talent in exchange for all the draft picks, while the Raptors lost both of their centers for nothing in the hopes of preserving Giannis-sized cap space for the offseason (alas).
Mean reversion. The Lakers and Bucks both won a ton of games last year; both should regress slightly. On the other hand, some apparently expect the Wolves and Bulls to be better after underperforming their expected point differential last year.
Those are fine for macro themes, but STL is never satisfied with ‘fine.’ To that end, enjoy a few testable predictions for how things will be different in this very weird season.
Load management: more upsets?
A buzzword from recent seasons, we predict the “Kawhi Virus” will become highly transmissible to other stars throughout the league this season. The NBA is packing 72 games into a compressed season, relying on less travel and more back-to-back games. This should prove especially taxing on stars who went deep into the bubble playoffs. It shows up in fantasy basketball playing time projections:
Looking back at the win totals chart, we see superstar laden teams like the Lakers, Clippers, and Bucks with reduced totals. But before you invest your life savings in Hawks championship futures, gamblers expect this to be a purely regular season phenomenon: the Lakers are still championship favorites everywhere.
Depth matters
The schedule and COVID risk have increased the importance of roster depth this year. Consider the Atlanta Hawks, who Vegas has penciled in for an extra twelve wins this year. Atlanta drastically improved their rotation by replacing the worst backup PG in the league (shout out to former Hawk and new Celtics assistant coach Evan Turner!) with Rajon Rondo and Bogdan Bogdanovic and turned the worst Center rotation in the league into Clint Capela and #6 overall pick Onyeka Okongwu. As a result, Atlanta goes from one of the league’s thinnest teams to one of its deepest, and is getting rewarded by bookmakers as a result.
Is tanking less attractive?
The NBA bubble brought us some of the most compelling basketball we’ve seen in a while, and so it makes sense to run back some of the best things that emerged from the Magic Kingdom. Among the big winners: weed, the play-in tournament, and of course the Clippers quitting on their coach. The play-in tournament’s inclusion (and expansion to include three teams in each conference) was initially a surprise to some, but it’s back this year as a weapon in the league’s battle against tanking. In previous season’s a 10th place team could decide early on they weren’t making it to that eighth spot and pivot to being strategically horrendous to improve their lottery odds. With the play-in tournament, that same team could win two straight games and find themselves in the playoffs.
The jury is still out on what kind of incentive a matchup with the number one seed actually is, but if things work out like the NBA plans, we should see more competitive late season games. This could result in the top teams getting fewer easy wins, further depressing their win totals.
Other things we’re keeping an eye on…
It took all of two days for a game to be postponed due to COVID. Are we headed for a rash of cancellations or will the NBA be able to recreate bubble discipline? Our take: there are going to be some G-League-caliber NBA games this season that make the QB-less Broncos-Saints game look like grandmaster chess by comparison.
Will we return to the Magic Kingdom for the playoffs this year? -200 Lebron has already reserved the presidential suite in the Gran Destino.
Which stars are moving during the season? -300 Harden, +125 Victor Oladipo, +150 John Collins, +200 Bradley Beal, +500 Kyle Lowry. Early-season returns have us eying the Beal line, as the Wizards’ underwhelming start will put pressure on GM Tommy Shepherd not to lose that asset for nothing. But if the Raps continue to scuffle, Lowry may become available. He’s a bit too expensive to fit into Boston’s trade exception but would really help them given Kemba’s injury.
Which young team levels up? +150 Suns, +200 Hawks, +250 Pelicans, +500 Cavs. Not listed: Bulls +10,000. Sorry Chicago fans.
Which veteran team decides to hit reset? -150 Rockets, +200 Raps, +300 Sixers, +400 Warriors. Harden has essentially forced the Rockets hand, but they have no incentive to be bad as OKC controls their pick via a swap this season.
Which young player most exceeds expectations? +200 Christian Wood, +400 Mikal Bridges, +1000 Darius Garland, +1500 Chris Boucher. Wood is definitely the leader in the clubhouse, showing off an advanced dribble package that reminded some of Giannis.
Which major change is announced by the League this year? -150 permanent suspension of cannabis testing, +300 League expansion, +500 CBA renegotiation , +2,000 4-point shot, +5,000 Elam Ending in the playoffs. The League is cash-strapped and Seattle desperately wants a team. The expansion idea makes too much sense not to happen. Make it so, Silver!
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Grayson Allen and Trae Young got into a Twitter beef after a few harrowing in-game moments. STL weighed in with our typical measured analysis.
STL INVESTIGATES
And we’re back with a very special edition of NBA Mad Libs. This week’s contestant: James Harden. We asked James:
Is it possible to force a trade from the Houston Rockets using nothing but strip clubs ?
Ahahaha! Those wacky mad libs. Although…. it’s possible James has inadvertently raised an interesting question. Might such a thing be possible? STL investigates.
Harden is something of a hero in the Houston community, not just because of his incredible level of play but also for his efforts to keep small businesses thriving across the country. After just one year as a Rocket, he had his jersey retired at Dreams…
…for his generous contributions…
…which reportedly totaled over a million dollars.
But all was not well in H-town. As this offseason commenced, Harden was unhappy, possibly because Tillman Fertitta is cutting payroll, possibly because Tillman Fertitta is a high profile Trump supporter, but Harden definitely has a problem with someone in the Rockets organization.
And so Harden, in violation of NBA COVID protocols, started to be spotted in small businesses nationwide. He popped up in an Atlanta strip club for Lil Baby’s birthday party on the day of the Rocket’s first practice (Ed. Note: a $200k watch and $100k in cash is a solid birthday present. Invite James Harden to next year’s STL Christmas party). A few days later, a video of Harden allegedly at another strip club in Vegas surfaced. However, upon very close examination of the video by STL, it appears that this event actually took place at a regular club which simply happened to have a lot of strippers in it.
We’re disappointed in Harden for making this rookie mistake, but for the moment he is still a Rocket, and there are still several strip clubs he hasn’t patronized. So the jury remains out on our question, but we have faith in James not to give up.
Thank you for playing, and join us again soon for another edition of NBA Mad Libs!
We find it hard to imagine Harden’s antics will be the only such violation of NBA protocols. Fear not, STL’s nightlife tracker will be updated throughout the season as additional headlines warrant.
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