🎨Composing a Contender
How are playoff teams constructed? We look at the data for clues. Also, the latest investigative reporting on the Danuel House scandal, fat shaming, bubble barbers, Lemon Pepper Lou, and more.
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OPENING TIP
The NBA season continues to roll along, and the bubble is starting to shrink in earnest now. Some very good teams are on their way home. As the old saying goes, “It’s time for these pro basketball teams to leave Walt Disney World and return to the disease ravaged wasteland we call America.”
As we write this, seemingly anything could happen during the remainder of the playoffs. The Clippers, long assumed to be a juggernaut, could lose tonight. The Bucks, who entered the bubble as favorites, are already gone. The remaining teams represent a fascinating mix of approaches to team building. Before the final outcome is written and everything looks obvious in hindsight, we thought we might briefly review how the season’s most successful teams are actually constructed. [1]
Immediately apparent is the impact of lottery-level talent. Players taken in the lottery contribute 42% of value to playoff teams despite representing only 30% of roster spots. They contribute 20% more value per player than the average late first-rounder and twice as much as the average second round or undrafted player. At the same time, the importance of player development is also clear. Lightly heralded second round and undrafted players generated a third of the playoff production for these teams. From Nikola Jokic (second round) to Fred Van Vleet (undrafted), most playoff teams feature key contributors added after the first round.
Next, we pivot to how teams acquire talent. We focus on three avenues: “home-growing” players through the draft, trading for them, and signing free agents. [2]
Boston, Toronto, and Denver’s talent is mostly homegrown, while Houston, the Clippers, and the Lakers did not receive meaningful contributions from homegrown players (other than as trade collateral). Of the eight teams to make the quarterfinals, only the Lakers acquired over 50% of their lineup via free agency (this can fairly be viewed as taking advantage of intrinsic advantages or as coasting on bygone glory and sunny weather, depending on whether you are from LA, or some better part of the country).
Finally, we look at roster composition by player talent level: stars, starters, rotation players, and reserves. Some definitions:
Every team needs stars to succeed. But how to get them? It turns out that despite conventional wisdom suggesting otherwise, aggressively clearing cap space to sign a big name free agent isn’t the only, or even best, way to do it.
“Home-growing” a star is the preferred (and most likely) way of getting one; the average second round playoff team has one such player on their roster. By contrast, free agency—long viewed as the panacea for teams desperately scrubbing their future cap sheets in search of a franchise savior—is much less likely to land you a star and more likely to land you Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
TAKEAWAYS
Next time you come across a piece explaining the ‘best’ way to build a contender, you can probably stop reading.
The conventional wisdom implores teams to tank for draft picks, keep their salary cap pristine, and lure big-name free agents. While that approach may work, it’s far from the only way to the top (as the teams above demonstrate). Remember also: the Knicks executed that strategy to a tee. They tanked their way to a top-three pick and carefully hoarded enough cap space for two max contracts. Their reward? All of the second-rate power forwards, headlined by Julius Randle; an unhappy rookie; and an awful environment to develop young talent. It’s time for our favorite GIF again.
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[1] We use minute-weighted PER for these charts for ease of calculation. Data is as of Saturday’s games.
[2] We include undrafted free agents into the “homegrown” category as these players demonstrate teams’ abilities to develop players.
(SELF-REFERENTIAL) TWEET OF THE WEEK
So much for “Microball” in Houston. And remember they’re not fat, they’re just big boned.
Man, that is some amazing content. We suggest you mash that follow button for whoever is tweeting out such gems.
(In all seriousness, our brand new Twitter account needs followers. Do us a solid!)
STL INVESTIGATES
While the Nuggets’ string of second-half comebacks has been exciting, the real action in the bubble last week came directly from the classy and authentic-looking Grand Floridian Hotel, erstwhile home of the Houston Rockets.
Rocket’s small forward Danuel House was accused of having inappropriate contact with a female testing staffer, who apparently spent “multiple hours” in House’s hotel room on September 8th, violating the league’s COVID quarantine policy. Both House and the staffer denied the report. Always alert to possible injustice, STL’s investigators were able to acquire the timeline the NBA compiled. As you will see, nothing untoward occurred, and the time is easily accounted for.
AT THE BUZZER
What are the best three point shooting seasons of all time? Empirical Bayes to the rescue.
The level of play from the bubble has been so high, NBA execs are exploring ways to reduce travel.
Lou Williams trademarks “Lemon Pepper Lou.” Sign us up for a shirt.
Are the Rockets finally due to explode?
The remarkable careers of Manute Bol and Muggsy Bogues.
“He called the man trash.” Russell Westbrook vs. William Rondo. Related: a look inside the NBA’s bubble barbershops.