D-🤺!!!!!!!
The dark arts of icing the side P&R, and other nonsense
Save the Lottery is a landmark achievement in the histories of both basketball and email. Why not subscribe, or forward to a friend?
OPENING TIP
Welcome back! Astute observers of the NBA may have looked at the schedule and said to themselves: ‘Man, this is a lot of basketball.’ And they would be right. The NBA is an every night, no exceptions, no breaks proposition this year. And the action is coming quick and fast, so naturally, this week the big story is… the national anthem? Sigh.
At STL, we feel very strongly that we have nothing of value to add to this conversation. Instead, we will turn our attention to the real purpose of this newsletter: making sure you sound like you know more about pro basketball than anyone else you happen to speak with.
Several weeks ago, we broke down how offense actually works in today's NBA, and this week we are back with the defense.
Thinking about stopping someone from scoring requires understanding how they score points. Analytics measures basketball offensive efficiency along four factors:
Effective field goal percentage - how many points per shot does a team score, which adjusts for the fact that three pointers are more valuable than twos (analytics!).
Free throw rate - how often does your team get to the line.
Offensive rebound rate - how many second chances for possessions does your team get.
Turnover rate - how often does your team give the ball to the other team.
A good defense will focus on limiting as many of these factors as it can. However…there is no silver bullet. NBA players are good at scoring, and every choice involves trade-offs.
DEFENSIVE STRATEGY
Defense starts on the offensive end. Fast break possessions are the highest efficiency in the game, but you can prevent these entirely by scoring. Failing that, getting back on defense after a missed shot is key. Some coaches, like Philly’s Doc Rivers, go so far as telling players not to even try to get offensive rebounds, because chasing those rebounds makes players slower to get back on defense. Our Man Stan Van has another phrase:
In the half court, teams try to limit each of the four factors in different ways. How you do so depends on philosophy and personnel. Take effective field goal percentage: the highest efficiency shots are those close to the basket and three pointers. So every competent NBA defense will try to limit these and encourage long mid-range shots. To illustrate how much times have changed, here is Michael Jordan's shot chart in 1997:
And here is James Harden’s from a few years ago:
The more your opponent’s shot selection looks like it’s out of the late 90’s, the better your defense will be. The Bucks, who have been one of the best defensive teams the past few years, limit EFG% by planting a giant rim protecting center squarely under the hoop and daring you to drive at him.
Then we have the three other factors: turnovers, free throws, and offensive rebounds. Some teams, like last year's Chicago Bulls, try to play aggressive on ball defense, trying to force more turnovers. However, this can lead to defenders ‘gambling’ for a steal and ending up out of position. And here is where personnel comes into play: the Bulls decided gambling for steals was worth the risk because the team had few players capable of staying in front of anyone in a more conservative defensive scheme.
The best way to limit free throws is to keep players away from the rim, where most fouls are committed. Last year’s historically great Bucks defense discouraged high efficiency shots at the rim and maintained a very low foul rate by playing seven-footers Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokoumpo together.
To limit offensive rebounds, most teams keep four players back to rebound, while one leaks out to start the break.
DEFENSIVE TACTICS
What we’ve discussed so far is mostly strategy: the philosophy of what causes teams to score less. The “how” that they go about this involves a bunch of tactics. To have a good defense, a team must effectively defend the fundamental play in most offenses, the pick and roll. This starts with a basic choice: do you switch, or not?
The advantage of switching is obvious: the pick is negated, and the ball handler doesn’t gain the advantage he sought. The disadvantage is that both defenders are now ‘cross-matched’—they are guarding different players than a moment ago, so your center might be guarding a point guard. If your center is Bam Adebayo, you might be fine with that; if he’s Enes Kanter, not so much.
Most teams don’t view this as an all-or-nothing proposition, and are willing to switch some matchups that aren’t as extreme. But teams that play giant rim protectors like Brook Lopez or Rudy Gobert accept that they aren’t going to switch everything, and adapt their PNR coverage accordingly.
Not switching gives the ball handler’s defender a choice: do you go under a screen, and allow an open off-the-dribble three pointer, or fight through the screen to prevent that? The league’s best perimeter defenders are adept at “getting skinny” and staying tight to their man over a screen. But many players can’t do that.
When James Harden played for the Rockets, he was so bad at getting through screens he forced his team to switch everything to avoid his being exploited every time down the floor. And this is probably a good time to appreciate the best defensive highlight video ever made, in honor of James Harden and his effort on defense.
The screener’s defender also has a choice in how to defend an on ball P&R. The Bucks utilize drop coverage, with Brook Lopez hanging back toward the basket to protect the rim. The alternative is bringing the big up, where the big will come up to the level of the screen to prevent the ballhandler from turning the corner towards the basket. Either poses risks: the Heat barbecued the Bucks’ drop coverage scheme in the playoffs last year, and bringing the big up risks allowing more shots at the rim and negating the advantage of a good shot blocker.
As we said, there’s no perfect scheme: every choice poses tradeoffs, which is what makes the dance so interesting.
This post could be the length of a book, but to save time, we’ll leave you with a list of nerdy terms to drop in casual NBA conversation that will make you sound a lot smarter than you are.
No Middle: The basis of most modern defenses, which try to keep offensive players out of the painted area at all costs.
Ice Coverage: A strategy used against a side pick & roll to force the ball handler towards the baseline, away from the middle of the court, with the goal of allowing a long mid-range jumper.
Tagger: A defender responsible for briefly guarding the roll man on a P&R to prevent an uncontested shot at the rim and allow the roll man’s defender time to recover.
Nail Defender: ‘The nail’ is the spot in the middle of the free throw line. Many defenses will have an off-ball defender leave his man on the perimeter and hang out at the nail, where he can interfere with passing and driving lanes and still get back to his man if necessary.
Top Lock: a technique used against pindowns (off ball screens for shooters in the corners) to prevent the player being screened for from using the screen as intended.
Boom! Now you are ready to sound like a genius next week at the water cooler… well, Zoom meeting, anyway.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
I am sure the sequencing of these tweets is purely a coincidence, but nevertheless, don’t mess with Slovenians.
STL INVESTIGATES: EMPTY ARENAS
This NBA season has been an odd one. At times amazing, ridiculous, or sometimes melancholy. This week, STL is flexing our artistic chops with a brief photo essay on the season so far, presented without comment.
Strange times.
AT THE BUZZER
Hollinger: Who are the biggest disappointments this season? Don’t hang around with Jack Harlow (Athletic, $)
Colin Kapernick forms a SPAC (Axios)
Jackie MacMullan feature on Trae Young (ESPN+, $)
Zach Kram on why the NBA is now more than ever a make or miss league (Ringer)