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OPENING TIP
Bubble ball: it’s more exciting! Objectively! According to the NBA Excitement Index, August 8th had the most exciting 5 game slate since the play by play era began in 1996, by a lot.
Since then we’ve seen some incredible basketball, from the Suns becoming human flamethrowers to Dame Lillard becoming, well, a human flamethrower. (Oh, and Donovan Mitchell had himself a game yesterday). Things have gone so well, people are calling for the NBA to adopt the play-in format going forward.
Many theories have been suggested as to why the quality of the basketball is so high, from the lengthy break to an absence of travel. But those people are wrong. Bubble basketball is a look into a world in which every team on the schedule is constructed with the intention of winning basketball games. Those not invited—the lovingly named Delete 8—are terrible teams, just as they were intended to be. Bask in the glory of the starters for the March 8th Pistons-Knicks game:
Not even Julius Randle’s mom would argue that these rosters are intended to maximize winning. Instead, both teams realized long ago that they were better off tanking to improve their lottery odds. The result is unwatchable.
Perhaps the only thing worse is a game like the Dec. 5th Denver-Knicks contest, in which a team trying to lose faces a team trying to win. Somehow the Nuggets squeaked out a 37 point win in that one.
Loyal Save the Lottery readers may have begun to suspect that we believe there are some problems with the current NBA Lottery system. Watch this space for upcoming content in which Save the Lottery goes ahead and saves the lottery.
DISINCENTIVES: DO THEY MATTER?
Tampering is back in the news. Draymond Green goes on TNT as an analyst and tells the guys that it was time to “Get my man [Devin Booker] out of Phoenix!”. Ernie Johnson (jokingly) asks him if he is tampering. Draymond (jokingly) responds, “Maybe.” NBA (less jokingly) hits him with a $50,000 fine for tampering.
Following particularly egregious 2018 and 2019 offseasons (see Kawhi and Paul George to the Clippers, or AD to the Lakers in an all-timer), the NBA expanded its tampering rule to state that "no player, coach or management person may entice or induce a player under contract with another team to play for his team."
But it’s basically impossible to prohibit players from discussing their futures, especially in this day and age when players are more connected than ever. In fact, the current NBA bubble is perhaps the most opportune setting for player “tampering” the league has ever seen.
Extracurricular chitchat during the 2008 Olympics (or was it the banana boat vacation?) was rumored to have spawned The Heatles, and player discussions during All Star Game Weekend are widely suspected to be precursors to summer deals.
Now imagine most of the NBA living, eating, and drinking together 24/7 for six consecutive weeks.
Taking a step back, the underlying principle is a bit absurd. In what other industries are companies and employees prohibited from recruiting new employees? Pretty much this and the CIA, right? So why does the NBA continue to litigate the issue?
Here at STL, we tend to believe that the NBA views all of its decisions within the framework of a protracted, multi-decade meta-negotiation between the league, teams, and players. Tampering fines are perhaps best understood as a concerted effort to appease small market teams so that they are more likely to be amenable during the next round of league negotiations.
Smaller teams consistently complain that the NBA doesn’t do enough to prevent the best players from teaming up in New York, Los Angeles, and Miami. The NBA may, in fact, prefer to have the NBA’s superstars in the league’s largest markets, and certainly doesn’t want to be in the business of requisitioning emails and auditing player DMs.
To keep the peace, the NBA engages in a bit of kabuki theater, drawing a line (somewhere, anywhere) despite the fact that it knows the rules its puts in place are unlikely to be enforced. When someone like Draymond gives them an opportunity for some very public wrist-slapping, they are happy to take it.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
STL Note: How is Markelle Fultz not on this chart?
BUBBLE BEASTS
We know Dame and Luka are balling out in the bubble, but who has taken the biggest step forward? STL’s analytics division looks at who is feeling the magic.
Source: Kevin Pelton (in-bubble WARP); Basketball Reference (full-season WARP)
STL INVESTIGATES
Wait, are we sure incentives matter?
Yes. We’re pretty sure about this one. This week STL Investigates presents: Incentives Matter: Miami Heat Edition.
Miami found themselves entering the final game at 44-28, within a half game of four other teams. Winning would make their upcoming draft pick as much as five spots worse. Each of the other four teams had already traded their pick this year and had no incentive to lose… while Miami had a clear incentive to lose. What happened? Miami competed hard anyway and…. just kidding!
In fact, 40-year-old Udonis Haslem played 24 minutes: more than he had in any game since April 2015. And he made those minutes count!
Shockingly, the Heat lost by 17 despite being favored by 1. Vegas, we’re very disappointed in you.
AT THE BUZZER
Adam Silver on the bubble: “It’s better than we had envisioned.” (Related STL coverage)
There goes STL’s best shot at getting invited to Orlando. Instagram Models banned from visiting players in the bubble.
So if the NBA doesn’t need the fans, does this mean basketball cards don’t need the cards? Fred Wilson on NBA crypto trading cards.
The coaches who were going to get fired have started getting fired.
For all the love heaped on the bubble, Hollinger and Aldridge say next year still looks kinda bleak (subscription required).