Playoff Prognosis 👨⚕️🔮
What can we learn from Vegas (and the stats). Plus arbitrage opportunities and more.
OPENING TIP
The playoffs baby! We’re fresh off the excitement and chaos of the play-in tournament, where… every higher seed won (so far). This year’s playoffs are a bit of a trade-off. On the one hand, they will feature basketball being played in front of real fans! On the other hand, we will sorely miss the Bubble’s ballroom courts, bass fishing, and complaints about the food.
This week we’ll tell you what Vegas thinks and what the advanced metrics think, and then we will explain what will actually happen.
All odds are as of 5/20
THE EAST
A quick note on the advanced metrics: ELO calculations are based on a team’s performance over the season (who beat who). RAPTOR predictions are based 538’s player value model. So RAPTOR becomes an attempt to weed out some of the noise from injuries and Covid.
76ers - Washington
Betting odds: N/A
538 RAPTOR: Sixers 46% to make the Finals; Wiz <1%
538 ELO: Sixers 40% to make the Finals; Wiz <1%
ESPN experts: N/A
The Sixers feel like the most slept-on 1 seed in recent memory. Their offense features good balance between Embiid down low and sharpshooting from three. Their defense sports three All-Defense players. That’s… a lot. It’s possible an inspired Russ could help Washington steal one here. Absent an injury to Embiid, SIXERS IN FOUR seems inevitable.
Nets - Celtics
Betting odds: Brooklyn -335 (~77% to win the series)
538 RAPTOR: Nets 26% to make the Finals; Celtics <1%
538 ELO: Nets 23% to make the Finals; Celtics 2%
ESPN experts: Nets (18-0)
The Nets have a defensive rating of 115 points allowed per 100 possessions. Admittedly, scoring has reached unprecedented highs in the NBA, but if the Nets win the Championship with that rating, it would make them the worst defensive team to do so in recorded history. On the other hand, their collection of offensive talent feels unstoppable on the rare occasions it all gets on the floor at the same time. It might take some time for Brooklyn to find their groove, but they will roll once they do. BROOKLYN IN 6.
Bucks - Heat
Betting odds: Milwaukee -210 (~66% to win the series)
538 RAPTOR: Bucks 17% to make the Finals; Heat 2%
538 ELO: Bucks 20% to make the Finals; Heat 5%
ESPN experts: Bucks (13-5)
The seat simply couldn’t be any hotter for Mike Budenholzer. Giannis is there to stay. The Bucks broke the bank to acquire Jrue Holiday. Anything less than a Finals run would be a failure. And then, with the option to tank one game to avoid the Heat—who spanked them last year—the Bucks opted into this series. Will the basketball gods reward their courage? We think the Bucks have spent a year getting ready for this series and squeak it out. BUCKS IN 7.
Knicks - Hawks
Betting odds: Knicks -105 (~51% to win the series)
538 RAPTOR: Knicks <1% to make the Finals; Hawks 5%
538 ELO: Knicks 13% to make the Finals; Hawks 6%
ESPN experts: Knicks (15-3)
A fun battle between two young teams who have never even sniffed the playoffs recently and weren’t expected to end up nearly this high when the year began. Questions abound. Can Trae Young’s bad defense and reliance on free throws work in the playoffs? Can just-returned DeAndre Hunter check Julius Randle? Is Thibs vs. Nate McMillan really a coaching mismatch? With so many unknowns, STL is bringing the deep insights: usually the team with the best players wins. HAWKS IN 6.
THE WEST
Now things get interesting. The West promises a more interesting slate of series for our viewing pleasure.
Jazz - Warriors / Memphis
Betting odds: N/A
538 RAPTOR: Jazz 26% to make the Finals; Warriors and Grizzlies <1%
538 ELO: Jazz 37% to make the Finals; Warriors and Grizzlies <1%
ESPN experts: N/A
The Jazz just ripped off a historically great regular season, finishing with one of the best net ratings of all time and proving that you can build a great defense around a singular force. Stats, common sense, and the history of 1 vs. 8 seed matchups would all point to this series not being competitive, but the way the Warriors are playing, you’d be crazy to not give them a chance. Ultimately, Utah simply has too much talent to fail, and we like the JAZZ IN 6.
Suns - Lakers
Betting odds: Lakers -160 (~60% to win the series)
538 RAPTOR: Lakers 16% to make the finals; Suns 5%
538 ELO: Lakers 3% to make the Finals; Suns 22%
ESPN experts: Lakers (17-1)
If the Lakers had a sheen of invincibility at the start of the season, it has worn off. They needed every ounce of grit (and some important lineup tweaks by Frank Vogel) to get out of the play-in games unscathed, and now face a rested, younger, and healthier Suns team with a good coach, great players, and a terrific leader in CP3. (By the way, what a welcome-back present the Suns get for their first playoff trip since 2010… sorry Phoenix!) Late money has come in on the Suns, with the series line moving down significantly. ELO looks at the Lakers’ lackluster results down the stretch with disdain, while RAPTOR seems to have more faith in AD and LeBron than it did last season. We can’t see the Suns stopping the Lakers’ AD-at-center lineups and will take the LAKERS IN 6.
Nuggets - Blazers
Betting odds: Nuggets -105 (~50% to win the series)
538 RAPTOR: Nuggets 8% to make the finals; Blazers 3%
538 ELO: Nuggets 14% to make the Finals; Blazers 8%
ESPN experts: Pick ’em (9-9)
The Nuggets defied odds to earn the 3 seed (although they were helped by the Clippers shameless tanking, as described below) and did not miss a beat despite losing Jamal Murray. The Blazers also closed the season strong on the back of a bunch of heroic Damian Lillard games. This series is a rematch from the 2018-2019 season, where the 3 seed Blazers took down the 2 seed Nuggets 4-3 in the West Semis. Critically though, Michael Porter Jr. has been scorching hot of late and gives the Nuggets a totally different look. We think the models are on to something and will take the NUGGETS IN 7.
Clippers - Mavericks
Betting odds: Clippers -430 (~80% to win the series)
538 RAPTOR: Clippers 43% to make the finals; Mavs <1%
538 ELO: Clippers 12% to make the Finals; Mavs 3%
ESPN experts: Clippers (17-1)
It’s a rematch! The Clippers’ reward for their cowardly end-of-season behavior (losing to the lowly Rockets and OKC in consecutive games, in part by giving journeyman Daniel Oturu a steady diet of awful midrange jumpers) is to face the Mavs, who have been quietly excellent after a slow start to the season. What they can expect from Porzingis is difficult to predict, and the roster is not yet ready to compete for a championship, even if Luka is. There’s a reason the models think this will be a walkover! One thing the models don’t get, though: karma! Cowards, earn thy reward: MAVERICKS IN 7.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Officer! I just witnessed a murder!
STL INVESTIGATES: TICKET ARBITRAGE
Have you heard? The Knicks are back! New Yorkers are pretty pumped:
The “average listing” isn’t representative necessarily of what you have to pay to get in the building, but by any metric, these are not cheap seats. Take this pair of tickets in section 117 (all prices as of Tuesday morning):
So that got us thinking. Atlanta is not exactly a basketball mecca. Being finance nerds, we immediately smelled an arbitrage opportunity!
Sure enough, very similar seats in Atlanta will run you slightly less:
So we ran the numbers. It turns out, you can break even on the trip and even enjoy a little home cooking!
No arbitrage theory tells us this delta should converge, so buy your plane tickets (and get your roll of singles) while you can. See you there.
AT THE BUZZER
Luke Walton, with a 62-82 record, is the Kings’ second most successful coach of all time (Reddit)
Interesting discussion about expansion being on the menu in this interview about Masai Ujiri’s future with the Raptors (Sportsnet)
The NBA’s secret lefties (WSJ, $)
ESPN’s “expert” playoff predictions (ESPN)