✨SPECIAL EDITION: 2020 NBA Draft Preview✨
No goofy suits, no problem. STL previews the top of the draft including cross-racial comps, x-factors, hype videos, and one prom picture.
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We’re back, baby!
It’s been a slow couple of weeks in the news cycle, but things are about to get interesting again. That’s right, STL is here to answer your NBA questions, like:
Who got the better end of the restart deal, the owners or the players? (The players.)
Are any of these draft prospects any good? (No?)
Who will be the first player not named Danuel House to be caught breaking COVID-19 protocols? (We’re waiting to see if J.R. Smith gets signed before hazarding a guess.)
The next few weeks will be a blur with the draft, free agency, and the start of training camp. Buckle your seatbelts!
THE FIRST INAUGURAL STL DRAFT PREVIEW
After 519 days, the 2020 NBA Draft will be held next Wednesday, November 18th. We salute indefatigable content creators like Sam Vecenie, Brad Rowland, and Chad Ford, who have been covering this draft for so long they are truly out of new things to say about this class. And what a class to have to cover ad infinitum: there is a league-wide consensus that 2020 is a below average draft class, lacking a stand-out #1 overall pick. The last time that happened, the Cavs selected the immortal Anthony Bennett first overall:
Oh wait, not that Tony Bennett, the basketball one!
No wait, not that basketball Tony Bennett, this guy:
There’s good reason to be worried. Even though draft experts have largely aligned on the top tier being LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and James Wiseman, there’s no clear consensus #1 overall pick. History tells us that while such drafts often produce incredibly talented players (take Giannis emerging from the 15th pick of an otherwise-putrid 2013 draft), there is much more uncertainty than a year with a clear overall #1.
Accordingly, several teams with high picks are desperate not to make them: the Timberwolves and Warriors are both rumored to be shopping their picks. Unfortunately, it takes two to tango, and there don’t appear to be many teams clamoring to move up. Psychological incentives matter, too: GMs who flub a top pick (whether they move up or not) are excoriated and eventually fired, and it’s hard for thoughts of job security not to overwhelm what might logically be the right move.
But the draft must go on, and so we present Save the Lottery’s Guide to the 2020 NBA Draft. What follows is our Big Board (a need-agnostic view of the best players, not a prediction of who might get drafted when), based on the consensus of The Ringer, ESPN, The Athletic, Chad Ford, Tankathon, and Sports Illustrated. For each player, we’ll give a brief sketch of the player’s profile, suggest a few comps (including at least one cross-racial comp, borrowing Daryl Morey’s favorite bias-overcoming technique), and hazard a few guesses as to best fit teams for him.
LaMelo Ball, PG, Illawarra Hawks
A point guard who played last season in Australia’s professional league, Lonzo’s younger brother is a better ball handler than his brother, an amazing passer, and plays with much more confidence. But he jacks up terrible shots without regard to his currently lacking shooting touch, and generally plays like he’s the guy everyone has paid to see. NBA teams with existing stars, beware!
Range: 1-3
Comps: Tall Trae Young, Tall Jason Williams, Pete Maravich Without a Jumper
Best fits: Bulls, Pistons, Knicks
X-Factor: Ball has more Twitter followers than there are people living in the state of Minnesota, so your team's social media engagement is done and dusted.Anthony Edwards, SG, UGA
The Atlanta native is built like a Greek god: he’s 6’5” and 225 pounds, with a 6’9” wingspan, a 40”+ vertical leap, and a nifty stepback jumper. He reminds people of Dwyane Wade and Victor Oladipo, who shared the same college coach (Tom Crean), and may be stronger than both. Alas, young Anthony frequently shows little desire to actually compete, and his teams have generally lost, even in high school. And draftniks are staggered at how such a freak athlete can play such bad defense. Caveat emptor.
Range: 1-8
Comps: Victor Oladipo, Dan Majerle, Rich Man’s Donte DiVincenzo
Best fits: Timberwolves, Hornets, Bulls
X-Factor: Edwards’ draft profile lists the areas he needs to improve as: “Decision-making, feel for the game, effort, competitiveness, contribution to winning.” So there’s that.James Wiseman, C, Memphis
Penny Hardaway’s protégé, Wiseman had enough with college after three games. He showed enough to tantalize, with incredible athleticism and physical stats (he’s 7’1”, 245, with a 7’6” wingspan) but also a stubborn insistence that he’s Dirk Nowitzki. If he gets the hang of drop pick-and-roll coverage and gets comfortable with a rim-running role on offense, he should contribute to winning basketball, but does that type of big merit a top three pick in today’s NBA?
Range: 2-6
Comps: Clint Capela, Steven Adams, Andre Drummond
Best fits: Warriors, Hornets, Wizards
X-Factor: Other players who played less than 4 games in college: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James. We assume this list is completely predictive.Onyeka Okongwu, C, USC
Okongwu was LaMelo Ball’s high school teammate, and has been criminally underrated his whole career: he didn’t even make the Pac-12 All Defense team last year, despite likely being the league’s best defensive player. He’s a 6’9” defense-first big who reminds people of Bam Adebayo because they’re about the same size, but that’s a lazy comp: Okongwu doesn’t have nearly the handle or passing that Adebayo now shows. He has a deft free throw touch that could expand beyond the arc over time, but won’t contribute much on offense at first. On D, he can play both drop coverage and switch pick-and-rolls, and so would be a great fit for any team who can afford to wait for his offensive game to come around.
Range: 2-6
Comps: Tristan Thompson, Daniel Theis, Derrick Favors
Best fits: Warriors, Hornets, Wizards
X-Factor: Referred to by multiple draft experts as “a top two talent in this draft, but he won’t go that high.” We don’t get it either.Killian Hayes, PG, ratiopharm Ulm
Hayes is fascinating: born in Florida, his dad played professionally in Europe and wanted the same for his son, so Killian spent last year in the German pro league rather than playing NCAA D-1. He’s a big point guard who can operate the pick-and-roll, make plays in help defense, and get to a step-back three. But he’s extremely left hand dominant, not a great athlete, and his threes mostly don’t go in. With a little luck, he’ll be an average NBA point guard.
Range: 1-10
Comps: D’Angelo Russell, Bob Sura, Dennis Schroeder
Best fits: Bulls, Pistons, Knicks
X-Factor: ratiopharm Ulm, Hayes’ team, once received a cease-and-desist letter from Warner Brothers about their mascot, Spass. On an unrelated note, German basketball is just okay.Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG, Iowa State
Draft nerds love Tyrese Haliburton. He has one of the best statistical cases in the draft as an efficient, deadeye-shooting point guard who is big enough to play the 2. He’s super skinny, though, which hurts him as an on-ball defender, and he can’t really finish pick-and-rolls. But he could really help a team as a backup PG who can play off-ball with the first unit and drain threes, despite his goofy low release.
Range: 4-10
Comps: Derrick White, Danny Ainge, Šarūnas Marčiulionis
Best fits: Bulls, Hawks, Pistons
X-Factor: Already signed an endorsement deal with Hugo Boss, so his clothes game is on point.Obi Toppin, PF, Dayton
Finally, a college player people have heard of! Toppin came out of nowhere to win national player of the year at Dayton, with dominant offensive numbers and an inside-outside game that reminds people of Amar’e Stoudemire. Unfortunately, there is no DH in the NBA, and so teams will have to figure out how to hide Toppin on defense. He’s the size of a big wing (think Khris Middleton or Jimmy Butler) but can’t guard those guys, so NBA teams will worry about how he fits.
Range: 4-11
Comps: John Collins, More Athletic Danilo Gallinari, Less Athletic Amar’e Stoudemire
Best fits: Bulls, Hawks, Pistons
X-Factor: Fans should consider the upside of having a starter named Obadiah on the team.Deni Avdija, SF/PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv
Deni is the apple of Israeli basketball’s eye. He won MVP of two youth international competitions and is the pride of Maccabi Tel Aviv. Luka comparisons are crazy: he barely played in Maccabi’s Euroleague games, while Luka won Euroleague MVP at a younger age. He’s a 6’9” forward who can dribble and pass, shows good defensive instincts, and flashes of a jumper. Analytically savvy teams are skeptical of the shot as he’s been a poor free-throw shooter, and he may be more Dario Saric than Luka.
Range: 4-10
Comps: Less Athletic Lamar Odom, Paul Millsap, Marvin Williams
Best fits: Bulls, Cavs, Hawks
X-Factor: Certain members of STL are very excited about having the best Jewish prospect since Amar’e Stoudemire (Look it up!)Isaac Okoro, SF, Auburn
The second of three Atlanta-born wing prospects, Okoro is a 6’6” wing who helped Auburn overperform. He’s a tenacious defensive player, is strong and athletic, and shows surprising ability off the dribble attacking closeouts and in pick-and-roll. He just can’t shoot: he was below 70% from the free throw line last year, below 30% from three, and often seemed reluctant to take open threes that an NBA team will need him to make. If he can fix the shot, he’s a steal this low.
Range: 6-13
Comps: Justise Winslow, Andrei Kirilenko, Joe Ingles
Best fits: Cavs, Hawks, Pistons
X-Factor: Just in case we forget how young these guys are, Okoro’s 6th most recent post on Instagram is his prom picture:
Devin Vassell, SG, Florida State
Vassell is the Toyota Camry of the draft: solid, dependable, but not exciting. He’s a skinny wing, 6’7” from Atlanta, who piled up both offensive and defensive stats. He showed shooting ability both off the catch and off the bounce, and is an amazing help defender while still being solid on ball. Just don’t expect to get much on-ball creation out of him, or All-Star upside, unless he keeps getting better (he entered FSU as a relatively unheralded player, and two years later finds himself a likely lottery pick).
Range: 7-11
Comps: Josh Richardson, Luke Kennard, Wesley Matthews
Best fits: Cavs, Hawks, Spurs
X-Factor: Scouts mention “Vassell’s wiry frame.” This is an understatement. At 6’7” Vassell still weighs less than 33% of STL authors, so he better put on some weight.
Others to watch:
Patrick Williams, SF/PF, Florida State
Williams has been shooting up draft boards over the past 6 weeks. He’s a 6’8” wing that’s built like a tank and can do a little bit of everything, but doesn’t excel at anything. He’s being mocked much higher than people have him on big boards, so don’t be surprised if he goes mid-lottery.R.J. Hampton, SG, New Zealand Breakers
A bouncy shooting guard who at least until recently couldn’t shoot (always a foolproof combo), rumors of an improved J linger amidst grainy Twitter videos. Just don’t stare too hard at his Australian league stats: like looking at the sun, they may cause blindness.Aleksej Pokusevski, PF, Olympiacos Pireaus
He’s 7 feet tall and weighs 195 pounds, so he would get blown over in a light autumn breeze. But he can dribble and shoot (at least in an empty gym; his stats in 250 second-division Greek league minutes were terrible) and even block shots. Expect someone (maybe Dallas or Boston) to take a swing at him with visions of Giannis-plums dancing in their heads.Kira Lewis Jr., PG, Alabama
A fast-twitch athlete who is also a smart player and a good shooter, Lewis reminds us a bit of D’Aaron Fox. Enough teams need a point guard that we could easily see him sneak into the lottery.
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and, in case all this gets you overheated, here is the official Anthony Bennett Hype Reel