🦘The Ben Simmons Holdout and the Cuban Missile Crisis🚀
Can game theory explain how this standoff ends? Plus: the dunk of the year, things that need fixing, the new king of trading cards, and more
OPENING TIP
We’re back! Did you miss us?
Somehow, despite less than a year elapsing since the Lakers won the title the season BEFORE last, 2021-22 NBA preseason games are already here.
Now, normally you might have consumed a steady diet of the typical preseason coverage. Guys are in the best shape of their lives! They’re happy to be with their new teams! They’re definitely, totally fine with coming off the bench. But you haven’t.
And neither have we, because we all know that only one thing happened or continues to happen in the NBA this summer. BEN SIMMONS. Okay, maybe Kyrie Irving, but really, it’s all Ben Simmons all the time. On the Ringer NBA feed alone, he’s been the topic of eight (8) separate podcasts since the season ended in July despite playing in zero (0) games during that span.
In case you’ve been living under a rock, a brief timeline of events:
June 2016: After years of intentionally losing, the Sixers are awarded the draft rights to Simmons, the number one overall pick (despite a shockingly mediocre one-season stop at LSU).
2016-2017: Simmons, injured in training camp, misses the whole season.
2017-2018: Simmons wins Rookie of the Year, much to Donovan Mitchell’s chagrin, averaging 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists. The Sixers lose in the playoffs to the Celtics.
2018-2019: Simmons averages 17/9/8. The Sixers trade for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris before losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Raptors.
We still can’t believe this went in 2019-2020: The Sixers decide to let Butler leave and build around Simmons, who averages 16/8/8. He gets hurt and misses the playoffs. The Sixers lose their first round series to the Celtics.
2020-2021: The Sixers steamroll the East on the way to the #1 overall seed, but try to trade Simmons for James Harden. He averages 14/7/7, takes just three shots in total across all of the 4th quarters of the Sixers’ surprise upset at the hands of the Hawks, and is subject to Doc and Embiid saying mean things about him afterward.
August 2021: Simmons meets with team management and tells them he wants out. In case they didn’t believe him, he has his agent leak this to the media.
September 2021: Simmons does not report to training camp. In response, the Sixers withhold the $8.25M due under his contract.
At present, we find ourselves in a good old-fashioned Mexican standoff between Simmons (and his agent Rich Paul) and Sixers GM Daryl Morey, with both sides having increasingly escalated the tension. Each party has now played their trump card: for Simmons, holding out from training camp; for the Sixers, withholding Simmons’ salary. So the question on everyone’s mind is: what next? Will Simmons back down and report? Will the Sixers give in and trade him for pennies on the dollar? Will SlimReaper ever sleep again?
To help us predict the future, we go back to the obvious historical corollary: the Cuban Missile Crisis. Two superpowers (the Sixers and Klutch Sports), each consumed with winning on both strategic and public relations levels, led by savvy and dangerous men with grudging mutual respect. The brinksmanship to date is reminiscent of the events of 1962: the IRBM installations; the U-2 flyover; the naval blockade. It stands to reason that a back-room deal that deescalates the whole thing is coming. But who will win?
Scholars have used game theory to explain the Cuban Missile Crisis for fifty years, starting with the legend Thomas Schelling. The prototypical game-theoretic model is “Chicken”, with a payoff matrix that incents each player to collaborate.
If we used Chicken as a framework, each side will hold out as long as they can, eyes locked on the other driver. The Nash equilibria indicate that eventually someone will flinch. Will the Sixers really waste a year of Embiid’s prime and get nothing back for one of their stars? Will Simmons really forgo over $30 million to force his way to a weaker team?
More recent economists have found an ostensibly better game-theoretic model of the Cuban Missile Crisis: generous tit for tat. Kennedy and Khrushchev were able to break out of a disastrous loop and re-initiate cooperation, which led to a deal that avoided war. NBA insiders report whispers of Simmons reporting, albeit “injured,” which would likely result in the Sixers resuming paying his salary.
To mix our historical metaphors for a moment, Nikita Khrushchev never had to go back to Philly after passing up an open dunk and quitting on his team. So there are limits to how much Klutch can possibly cooperate even if Rich Paul wanted to do so. While we think it’s likely that Simmons does eventually report, we don’t expect to see him in a Sixers jersey this season, or ever.
But will Morey accept 50 cents on the dollar? Not likely. As a student of history, he likely knows all too well that every team loves their team on the eve of the new season. Every GM expects his draft picks to hit, his young players to improve, his stars to stay healthy, his cheap signings to bounce back, and his veterans to steadily contribute. After a month of games, reality has a way of checking such lofty sentiments, and the Mystery Australian Behind Door #2 seems a lot better than the 24ppg scorer with a 4-14 record.
But waiting out Simmons and Klutch isn’t a no-brainer. The biggest variable might be the Sixers’ performance while Simmons sits. If Philly struggles, the pressure increases on Morey to get something of value for Simmons now. If the Sixers don’t miss a beat, Simmons’ already hurting stock may slide even lower, hurting Morey’s chances of getting a haul for him.
It might be a while, but sooner or later Simmons will be traded. Probably not for Dame Lillard, and certainly not for John Wall or Kevin Love. He’s a great defensive player who hasn’t improved on offense since his rookie year. He’s not worth keeping your IRBMs in Turkey, at least as long as the press doesn’t find out.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Our condolences to Jarrett Allen’s family.
STL INVESTIGATES: PROBLEMS
Astute readers know that this newsletter’s tagline is, “Solving the world’s problems, starting with basketball.” But during our offseason absence, unresolved problems have inevitably cropped up. Let’s take a moment to tidy things up.
Problem 1: Ben Simmons is holding out
European soccer presents us with an easy solution: bring player loans to the NBA! The Sixers retain Simmons’ rights but lend him to Sacramento for the season. They split the salary. Simmons rehabs his trade value for Daryl Morey and doesn’t have to play for the coach he now despises. The Kings improve their terrible defense, and an entirely new fanbase gets to complain about how Simmons won’t shoot. Sure, there is the risk of injury, but is it so much higher than when Ben was running from the paparazzi on Kylie Jenner’s arm? Make it happen.
Problem 2: Kyrie Irving doesn’t want to get vaccinated
New York City law requires “workers and patrons of Indoor Dining, Fitness, and Entertainment Venues” to be vaccinated. Barclays Center qualifies as an entertainment venue, yet Kyrie won’t get the shot. What gives?
First, let’s all cut Kyrie some slack. We all remember a few years ago when this made the news:
Irving eventually backed off this stance, demonstrating that Kyrie believes in doing his own research, but unfortunately he has only gotten up to the year 1543. He will come around, just give him some time.
Second, who says there is a problem here? Kyrie is about to become the NBA’s first away game-only designated hitter! That sounds great! Maybe we could combine this with solution 1, and lend Kyrie out to struggling teams when Brooklyn is playing its home games.
Finally, the Nets front office has a simple out as well. Release Kyrie and sign Uncle Drew to a two-way contract.
(If you haven’t watched any of these, do yourself a favor)
Based on the tape, we think Uncle Drew could fill a lot of the gaps left by Kyrie’s skill set, and given his age and COVID risk, he’s almost certainly vaxxed!
Problem 3: NBA Ratings
Many writers, like our friend Ethan Strauss, have spent the last several seasons wringing their hands over the NBA’s ratings. We argued that reports of the NBA’s demise were probably exaggerated. Now reports are emerging that the NBA is discussing a deal that would increase its rights fees from $24 billion to in the neighborhood of $75 billion. Seems decent.
Still, there is always more that can be done. For instance, did you know that Rich Paul, LeBron James confidant, head of Klutch Sports Agency, is dating Adele? Yeah, that Adele. What?
Has she been to LeBron’s place for dinner? Who is her favorite Klutch client? Who wouldn’t want to know more about this? Why isn’t this a reality show? Get on it, NBA.
Problem 4: Facebook is ruining everything
Did you know MySpace is still a thing? Totally is. We could just go back…
AT THE BUZZER
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Betting favorites to land Ben Simmons from Minnesota (+195) to Orlando (+3200). Not listed: Philadelphia (#N/A)
Tony Allen, Big Baby Davis, and 16 other former NBA players charged in healthcare fraud scheme
The NBA is the latest vaccination battleground