The NBA's Coaching Revolution
Why the NBA is like the NFL, combine stat porn, Ben Simmons rumors and more
OPENING TIP
Today we go back in time… back to the year 2019! How strange it seems. Lil’ Nas X sits atop the charts, Donald Trump is complaining about censorship on social media, and the NFL has finally cracked the code on how to hire a head coach.
After Wunderkinder Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay just finished trouncing the rest of the league, the rest of the NFL was suddenly desperate to hire their own version. Young white guy Matt LaFleur was hired as Green Bay noted he was personally acquainted with Kyle Shanahan. Young white guy Kliff Kingsbury was hired as Arizona noted he looked a little like Sean McVay (or maybe it was because of his impeccable taste in real estate).
And the trend would continue as each team tried to find their own Sean ShanaVay, with Arthur Smith, Zac Taylor, and Kevin Stefanski all getting hired over the past 24 months. It felt like madness, but was there a method to it?
Rules changes have made the NFL an offense-first league. There is no commodity more valuable than a sharp and creative offensive mind. But! If you only hire that guy as your offensive coordinator, he can be hired away by the next team with an opening. Ask the Falcons how that goes.
So the solution is to have the head coach run the offense so he can’t be poached. The changing rules landscape has redefined what you need out of the job.
We may be seeing a similar sea change in the NBA. The rise of analytics-driven front offices have cast light on the fact that the primary inefficiency under the current CBA is that the very best players are massively underpaid. Acquiring a big star or three (ahem, Brooklyn) is the fastest and easiest way to the top of the heap. Of course, to get those names, you have to pay, and the currency du jour is draft picks (all of them, approximately). This creates a situation in which teams have no picks, and no Plan B should their star walk. Retain them at any cost, or be left a smoking ruin.
At the same time, the league’s brightest young stars have begun to flex their influence. Trae Young, Zion Williamson, and Luka Doncic all effectively caused their coaches to get fired, despite being on rookie contracts. Teams can’t afford to anger their star youngsters for fear of it backfiring later.
So it is against this backdrop that we see the latest spate of coaching hires: Steve Nash, Ty Lue, Chauncey Billups, Nate McMillan, Ime Udoka, and Jason Kidd. What do they have in common? They are “player whisperers”—former players that send the dual messages: “I know what you are going through,” and “Please God, don’t sign with another team.”
It might just be the best play. This isn’t the NFL, and all the “coaching up” in the world isn’t going to stop Kevin Durant from dropping 40 on your head in the playoffs. It’s awfully nice if you can get a tactical mastermind like Mike D’Antoni to back you up, but the history of the NBA is replete with championships being won by the very best players. So making sure you can keep the one you got is of paramount importance.
And it’s not like these guys don’t know X’s and O’s. Steve Nash’s moves kept a wounded Brooklyn team with several cast offs within three inches of making the Conference Finals (and likely the NBA Finals thereafter). Ty Lue similarly overachieved with the banged-up small ball Clippers.
Trends in coaching hires tend to be cyclical. Teams tend to overreact to the opposite of the guy they just fired; the player’s coach is replaced by the hardass who will demand accountability.
While trends change, amassing talent may take some time to go out of style. It seems like the job description of the NBA coach will look markedly different for some time to come.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Philly playing hard to get is so cute.
A FUNNY THING HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO THE COMBINE
There once was a time that the NBA Combine was Must See TV. It was a GM’s opportunity to confirm that, say, Shelden Williams’ arms were in fact shorter than a T-Rex’s.
It was the scouting department’s chance to see if those bench reps proved that Shelden Williams had the upper body strength to bang in the post (he had 25, good for 9th all time). You could even watch your two favorite prospects—Shelden Williams and LaMarcus Aldridge—go head to head one last time before draft night.
But it wasn’t terribly long before agents started to realize that players at the very top of teams’ draft boards were better off skipping the combine entirely than attending and having everyone suddenly notice that despite their college team’s record, they couldn’t actually, you know, play. Or that they had tiny hands. Or that they were an undersized upperclassman from Duke with limited athleticism who didn’t appear to have a shot or much of a handle (no, we’re not fans of the Landlord at STL HQ). In short, if you can sit tight and get drafted in the top five no matter what, information asymmetry is your friend. The only direction your stock can go is down.
What’s more, NBA trainers soon followed in their NFL brethren’s footsteps and began to get quite adept at ‘training for the test.’ Suddenly players started showing up and posting the best max vertical of all time, best standing leap of all time, and fifth fastest 3/4 court sprint of all time all in the same combine. Who could forget the immortal D.J. Stephens?
So the cream of the crop rarely shows up these days, and the signal-to-noise ratio is possibly not great at the combine of late.
But anyway, the NBA Combine took place in Chicago last week, and we couldn’t help but be absolutely geeked! It’s a problem, we know, but if you want to be a true draft nerd, you gotta stay on top of this stuff.
At the top of the draft, Florida State forward Scottie Barnes has been steadily climbing up draft boards and a solid showing in Chicago—7’3” wingspan, 9’0” standing reach, smooth shooting mechanics—may have helped him move into the top five. Huskies sophomore guard James Bouknight solidified his mid-lottery position with a scorching shooting display, while Tennessee guard Keon Johnson may have leaped into the top ten after smashing the vertical jump record with a 48” vert.
Outside the high lottery, NBA prospects typically come with some existential questions about their ability to remain on the floor in a playoff game. Shooting, passing, and defensive viability are perhaps the three biggest swing factors that separate draft hits and misses, so unsurprisingly these are the skills that talent evaluators fixate on at the Combine, hoping to catch a glimpse of a space-creating big man or 3&D wing.
5-on-5 play and shooting drills can help GMs build comfort around passing and shooting ability, but small sample warning labels apply. Defensive viability, on the other hand, can reveal itself through Combine measurements like height in socks, relative wingspan (wingspan minus height), and quickness drills. And while you can go on a hot shooting streak, it’s hard to fake your standing reach.
Several of the other significant Combine winners fell into this camp, including guards Moses Moody, Scottie Lewis, Miles McBride, and Bones Hyland, who all posted +7” or higher wingspans—compared to the NBA average of +3” to +4”—and can project to guard up a position. Hyland, a Rashaad Phillips favorite who we highlighted during the tournament, appears to have secured a first round spot after dominating the opening scrimmage.
The big losers, on the other hand, were mostly regular season and tournament stars like Max Abmas, Johnny Juzang, and Luka Garza, who posted subpar measurables and might just not have the physical stature or quickness to make it at the next level.
It’s easy to ridicule the Combine as an artificial environment, where play during a few scrimmages or a couple extra inches of wingspan somehow count more than a full season of college hoops. But for many players, this is the first time teams can watch them play five-on-five where everyone on the court was NBA caliber. Sure, Garza can shred UW-Green Bay’s center, but how does he look against the top 5 or 6 big men prospects in the country, all of whom are desperate to make a name for themselves by showing him up? And so for all its flaws and quirks, the Combine continues to be the best way for mid-tier prospects to show they belong in the League.
AT THE BUZZER
How billionaires leverage their new NBA team to save on their tax bill. (ProPublica)
Is the Hawks blueprint for rebuilding the future of NBA team construction? (The Ringer)
The making of Jalen Green, NBA phenom (The Athletic, $)
Chuck recounts Larry Bird’s legendary trash talk (Sportscasting)