Welcome to Save the Lottery, and thanks for reading. We are passionate basketball fans who think that the NBA is the most interesting of all professional sports leagues—yes, somehow even more interesting than America’s pastime. We plan to write about the business of the league, the incentives faced by GMs and players, gambling odds, the limits of analytics, KD’s latest secret Twitter handle, and the latest storylines that emerge each week.
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THE BOYS IN THE BUBBLE
The global pandemic, shutdown, and subsequent resurrection of the NBA season in Disney World has presented the public with something else that’s novel: the opportunity to watch professional basketball played in completely unprecedented circumstances. Specifically, after a long layoff, with no fans, on a neutral court. How weird will it get? Well, if our first look provides an indication, pretty weird.
Somehow, Skinny Jokic at point guard for the Nuggets was only the second strangest thing about the lineup. Number one? 7’2” Bol Bol, Small Forward making his debut and raining 3’s.
The long break has added an additional layer of uncertainty into how the season will play out. Some players have had time to heal (Jusuf Nurkic, Zion Williamson); some have opted out; and some may have gotten too reliant on Postmates.
So how are things going to shake out in this brave new world? SAVE THE LOTTERY looked to the betting markets for guidance.
THE WINNERS
Philadelphia 76ers (40/1 Pre-COVID to 20/1 today)
Just what we expected: the team with the the team with the biggest home/away differential in NBA history sees a huge odds boost playing all their games on a neutral court. Wait, what? Perhaps the bubble’s unpredictability makes laying favorites less compelling, and Philly also has an easy pre-playoffs schedules. But the Sixers’ inability to win anything outside of Philly has to be concerning. The lack of home field advantage promises to be one of the most interesting story lines of the bubble.
Brooklyn Nets (750/1 to 80/1)
This number is baffling. If you’re interested in betting the Nets, we have some suggestions about how your money might be better spent…
With Kyrie, KD, and Spencer Dinwiddie all out, Caris Lavert figures to set usage records for a suddenly putrid Nets roster. But who knows: perhaps the Grand Floridian and Gran Destino (the hotels where the top seeds are being housed) become COVID hotspots. Stranger things have happened. Just not many.
THE LOSERS
Los Angeles Lakers (2/1 to 12/5; -4% championship odds)
Did the public get an early peak at Graybeard Lebron and get spooked? More likely, lack of home field advantage and the high uncertainty surrounding the bubble make the tails fatter on season outcomes.
Denver Nuggets (18/1 to 25/1)
The Nuggets are among the few teams bucking the trend of improving odds for anyone not residing in Milwaukee or Los Angeles. We suspect it has something to do with reports that the Nuggets arrived in Orlando with a roster that featured exactly 8 players.
Miami Heat (25/1 to 40/1)
The Heat were an intriguing team before the break and made a big move in acquiring Andre Iguodala, who looked… rusty in his brief pre-hiatus audition. The sharp money appears to suspect that Iggy has spent more time on the golf course than in the gym the last year. Combine with concerns that Bam Adebayo tested positive, and we’re seeing a remarkable slide.
Worth Noting: The NBA is keeping reports of squads being shorthanded out of the news. Teams have been given the option of having open or closed practices, and a number have opted for closed, so as not to reveal who traveled with the team. Members of the media have been frustrated by their inability to report who is there.
GOOD READS
Matisse Thybulle is the breakout star of the bubble so far. His incredible vlog details life inside the bubble, in all its glamour and monotony (spoiler alert: lots of fishing, COVID tests, and food in takeaway containers).
Ben Gordon writes about grappling with mental health issues and his search for purpose after retirement.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
STL INVESTIGATES
Is it possible Lou Williams is telling the truth?
The headlines don’t look great.
The short version:
Lou Williams of the Clippers was excused from the bubble in order to attend his grandfather’s funeral in Atlanta.
He was spotted on Jack Harlow’s Instagram story wearing his NBA Bubble mask at Magic City, a legendary Atlanta strip club.
When social media sleuths immediately connected the dots, Williams denied it (and Harlow clumsily tried to cover for him)
Williams eventually admitted he was at Magic City, but claimed it was for the food
He is now serving a 10 day quarantine period and will miss at least the first two games of the restart
But there’s a twist in the tale: the wings at Magic City are named for him! In addition to signature styles Uncle Jeff Honey Jerk, Juju Rude Boy Jerk, and Justice Magic, you can order your wings Louwill Lemon Pepper BBQ style! An STL investigation produced a contact who has tried the wings somewhat recently. Asked about the quality of Magic City’s food, he replied “It, ah…. I don’t remember.”
Postscript: the wings do look pretty good!
AT THE BUZZER
What force will determine who lifts the O’Brien Trophy? Will it be COVID-19? Or will be it be Shake Milton?
Maybe you’re tired of all the bad news, and need a little sweetness in your life. Dennis Rodman’s Korean bromance might be just the ticket.
For our readers with finer sensibilities, enjoy the composition and color of late period Kirk Goldsberry.
This week’s STL hot take: Zach Lowe knows his NBA rotations.
Finally, the words we live by at SAVE THE LOTTERY. Snitches get stitches.