Winners and Losers of the 2021 Lottery🎰
We break down how the ping pong balls bounced. Plus: who would win, the ERs or the ICs?
OPENING TIP
The second round of the NBA Playoffs was, in a word: really absolutely amazing. It featured a number of classic performances, as well as a moment that reminded us of just how fragile success in the NBA is. With one (1!) second left in Game Seven of Bucks/Nets, Kevin Durant caught and drained an amazing and perfect buzzer beater. The catch? His toe was just on the line, tying the game and sending it to overtime rather then winning it outright. It simply could not have been closer.
3/8th of an inch, and the Hawks are playing the Nets right now, and Mike Budenholzer, Giannis Antetokounmpo, KD, James Harden, and who knows who else have entirely different legacies and career paths. But it turns out the margins are finer than that. You see, in street clothes, Kevin Durant wears a size 17, but on the basketball court, he has taken to wearing an 18, to get a “lighter feel.” Had KD been wearing the correct size shoe? History might have been entirely different. Such are the vagaries of professional basketball.
But, far be it from us to suggest that the future of franchises rests in nothing more than the fickle hands of fate. Let us instead turn to the NBA Lottery, which took place this week, and uses ping pong balls to… determine the future of franchises. This week’s results, which solidified the full order for the 2021 Draft, were interesting without being shocking. The biggest mover was Toronto moving from 7 to 4, with every other team moving two or fewer spots from where they were slotted. The other teams picking in the top three were no lower than 5th in odds. So, despite the chalk, who were the winners and losers?
WINNERS
Detroit Pistons. The presumptive winners of the Cade Cunningham sweepstakes, Detroit could get good quickly. GM Troy Weaver has made a few controversial moves (including signing Olympian Jerami Grant) but has the team positioned for a rapid turnaround. The lower two of their three first round picks last year made an All-Rookie team, Grant is an above average starter on the wing (if not quite typical Dream Team material), and Cunningham should contribute right away.
Being born on third base and thinking you hit a triple. America’s least favorite restaurant magnate/asshole/nepotist Tillman Fertitta totally lucked out. The Rockets had an almost 50% chance of moving out of the lottery by virtue of a pick swap they included in the Chris Paul/Russell Westbrook trade, but instead secured the second pick. So our faith in the American system of taking one’s achievements made possible by good fortune and crediting them to hard work is still intact.
Quick turnarounds. The Spurs are famous for lucking into Tim Duncan the one year that David Robinson was injured and they missed the playoffs. Could the Toronto Raptors be positioned for a similar turnaround? Devastated by COVID and playing in Tampa, the Raptors now will likely have their pick of several potential All Stars. They have to be eyeing Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs carefully here.
LOSERS
Oklahoma City. We mean the city, not the team. After enduring months of unwatchable basketball featuring Point Poku, OKC not only fails to move up into the top four but sees their Rockets pick swap expire unused. They had a 70 percent chance of at least one of those two outcomes happening. Sam Presti is warming up his “SGA injury excuse generator” as we speak.
Karma, justice. The Bulls and Raptors are a perfect sliding doors situation. When facing similarly long odds to make the playoffs (and much longer to actually make any noise therein), the Bulls doubled down while the Raptors brought out the M1 Abrams and blew their own season to smithereens.
Despite this insolence, the Raptors were rewarded and the Bulls were punished. In a similar rebuke of karma, Minnesota lost their pick to Golden State despite their refusal to endorse a ‘Process’ and abjectly tank. And we’ve already covered Houston’s undeserved good fortune. We are beginning to question the tenets of Buddhism (but say what you will, at least it’s an ethos).
Draft class predictions. As the draft approaches, we note with raised eyebrows the overall lower evaluations of top prospects. Last fall, we were told that as many as five players (the hyped Cunningham/Mobley/Green/Kuminga/Suggs quintet) were better than anyone in the 2020 draft. But the 2020 draft was substantially better than people thought! LaMelo Ball is now a consensus future star, Anthony Edwards improved dramatically while simultaneously cracking us up, and many other players contributed in important ways. And the current draft looks a lot less of a sure thing as Draft Day approaches, with each player other than Cunningham raising serious questions.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
We also noticed that Ben Simmons did not have a great week, but did baseball teams really have to get in on the action? Baseball?
STL INVESTIGATES: LAST NAMES
At STL, we occasionally get emails asking what it is really like at Save The Lottery Headquarters. And in all honesty, a typical day looks something like this:
But recently, as in so many workplaces, be they Amazon or the Washington Football Team, controversy has divided the workforce, tearing asunder friendships and sometimes families.
At issue is the following question: if you had to create a basketball team of current NBA players, but each player had to have the same last two letters in their name, who would win?
The possibilities are myriad. You could try to field a team of 'po's, but after the three Antetokounmpo brothers and Victor Oladipo, you would still be short a point guard, and thus disqualified. More promising would be the 'jr's. a lineup featuring
Kevin Porter Jr.
Michael Porter Jr.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Wendell Carter Jr.
The 'jr's, appropriately enough, have a really promising young core, but don't go particularly deep, don’t pass the ball, and are universally poor defenders. Not gonna cut it.
Next up we have the 'es's:
LeBron James
Joe Ingles
Mikal Bridges
Harrison Barnes
Richaun Holmes
Now we're getting somewhere. King James plus shooting has long been a title contending formula, and Joe Ingles and Mikal Bridges filling it up from outside while the King creates sounds pretty good. But is Richaun Holmes good enough at Center?
Another strong contender is the ‘on’s’:
Malcolm Brogdon
Tyrese Haliburton
Khris Middleton
Zion Williamson
Mitchell Robinson
A strong lineup to be sure, but not quite enough creation or shooting. They really could used a stretch five to put next to Zion.
In the end, we feel it comes down to one of two teams.
The 'er's':
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Devin Booker
Jimmy Butler
De'Andre Hunter
Chris Boucher
against the 'ic's
Goran Dragic
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Luka Doncic
Bojan Bogdanovic
Nikola Jokic
The ‘ic's are obviously an unstoppable offensive juggernaut. Five deep shooting the three and blessed with incredible playmaking and passing. This team would be absolutely unguardable. On the other end, that's kind of a lot of slow white guys. They have excellent size, and Jokic and Bogdanovic (ATL edition) are underrated defenders, but this team also gives up some points.
The 'er's on the other hand have lock down defensive tools. Boucher is still little known but an excellent shot blocker, while Butler and Hunter can shut down wings. This team is a little light on creators, but Booker and SGA are both underrated here. But what letters truly reign supreme? We're turning it over to our readers:
AT THE BUZZER
Nike Direct sales are up 60%… and we still can’t get new Jordans on SNKRS. (Sportico)
NFL explores selling stake in media properties. We could see the NBA going this route eventually as well. (WSJ, $)
No one is buying Top Shot highlights any more (Top Shot)
Google Trends for “NBA Top Shot” — interest is down ~90% since the peak (Google)
Umbrella link to The Athletic NBA playoffs coverage, which has been incredible (Athletic, $)