Four Player Archetypes Who Will Impact the Draft 📏🔭
We look to the playoffs for a preview of whose name you might hear on draft night
OPENING TIP
You can tell the Conference Finals are in full swing by the sounds of Overreaction Theater. After every game, the pundits are convinced that its outcome portends the rest of the series, with zero acknowledgement of anything contrary they may have said two days earlier. The Celtics/Heat series has been a particular offender of late, but the ebbs and flows of Celtics/Bucks, Suns/Mavs, and even Warriors/Grizz all afflicted pundits with short-term memory loss.
By contrast, we don’t actually suffer anterograde amnesia at STL HQ, and we suspect that you, dear reader, don’t either. As such, we’re going to spend some time looking forward instead of back.
It may be a cliché that 16-game players are different than 82-game players, but there is something to that old saw. During the playoffs, the league’s better teams have been able to ratchet up their defensive intensity and pursue tactical adjustments to neutralize the opposing team’s star performers (see: Trae, CP3, Mitchell, Gobert, Steven Adams). Meanwhile, less heralded players that can contribute in the playoff environment—even in narrowly defined roles—have stepped into the limelight. This week, we’ll focus on one role player from each Conference Finals team whose play is likely to have teams looking for a doppelgänger come draft time.
THE UNDERSIZED YET SWITCHABLE FIVE:
GRANT WILLIAMS, CELTICS
You can be forgiven for not being a Williams fan if you’ve seen him mic’d up—he’s one of the most annoying players in the NBA—but Williams is legit. His 7 threes carried the Celtics to a comfortable game 7 win over the Bucks, while his defense has contained everyone from Kyrie to Giannis. Williams succeeds because playoff teams don’t try to score in the post, so his lack of both size and a true back-to-the-basket game aren’t missed, and the Celtics don’t need him to create off the dribble thanks to the presence of Tatum and Brown.
WHO COULD BENEFIT?
Undersized five prospects everywhere are sending thank-you notes to Grant for his strong play, but most of them can’t slide their feet, hold their ground in the post, or shoot threes well enough to present a credible Williams impression. A few who might:
EJ Liddell, Ohio State. Listed as a power forward, Liddell clocks in at 6’7” 240, which by our rough math is the highest BMI of projected first rounders. The Ringer’s NBA Draft Guide notes that Liddell “came back [for his junior season] a better perimeter defender than ever… in a switching defense, he can handle any position.” He also scored 19 a game and made nearly 38% of his threes. His film session with ESPN analyst Mike Schmitz is fascinating.
Tari Eason, LSU. We’re counting him in this category as he played backup center minutes at LSU. Eason is a super athlete with great steal and block rates, a huge frame, and a much-improved jump shot. He fouls too much and turns the ball over more than he should, but he should thrive in the reduced role an NBA team will ask of him. Eason started the college season outside Sam Vecenie’s top 100 but now could potentially be picked in the lottery.
THE THREE-AND-D WING:
DORIAN FINNEY-SMITH, MAVERICKS
Dorian Gray never aged, but his portrait accumulated evidence of his vices. Even though the Portrait of Dorian Finley-Smith harkens all the way back to Michael Cooper, the pater familias of the Bruce Bowen lineage, it’s still pristine. DFS doesn’t exactly titillate the fans (his 2022 highlight video sports 5,500 views, a mere 2,024,500 short of a similar Luka video) but he helps the Mavs win by guarding the other team’s best player and making spot-up threes. From Andrew Wiggins to Jae Crowder to Reggie Bullock, these guys continue to form the backbone of a good playoff defense.
WHO COULD BENEFIT?
Drafting a three-and-D archetype for college players is usually betting on the come: the hope that one (or both) of the three-making and/or defense eventually comes around. Think Ziaire Williams or Trey Murphy III last year. This draft has an unusually high number of three-and-D prospects—expect them to fly off the board starting in the late lottery and continuing throughout the first round.
Ochai Agbaji, Kansas. Agbaji is a senior, so he’s older than most of the players who will go off the board in Round One, but he drilled 41% on 6.5 three point attempts per game and measured at almost 6’6” in shoes with a 6’10” wingspan. If he can tighten up his handle, he has a chance at a bigger role.
Kendall Brown, Baylor. Brown falls into the “betting on the come” category: he’s a super athlete and just turned 19, but was a sketchy free throw shooter and was very reluctant to take threes in college. Reporters seem to think he could go as early as in the late lottery.
Wendell Moore Jr., Duke. Moore was supposed to be a one-and-done when he came to Duke in 2019, but he clearly wasn’t ready. Two years later, his shooting has taken a big step forward, as has his playmaking (4.4. assists per game last year and over 2 assists per TO). As with Agbaji, he’s seen as a low-risk pick in the late first round, but there’s clearly upside if he can continue to improve on ball.
THE FLAMETHROWER FROM DEEP:
MAX STRUS, HEAT
It doesn’t seem fair that almost immediately after plucking Duncan Robinson out of obscurity and elevating him into a nearly $20M per season player, the Heat have done it again with Strus. In the last 10 months he’s gone from fighting to earn playing time at summer league to starting for a Conference Finals team. While Strus may not be quite the shooter that Robinson is, he’s a lot more rugged on defense—Trae Young struggled to beat him off a switch in the first round—which makes him a far more useful playoff archetype.
WHO COULD BENEFIT?
In a perfect world, your three-and-D wing is also a flamethrower. The Suns’ Cam Johnson was purportedly this archetype until he was incinerated by Luka and the Mavs last round. These guys tend to fit best in switching defenses where they hold up well enough to not give the opponent an obvious point of attack, while opening driving lanes on the other end by sprinting off of pin downs and generally being someone you absolutely, positively can’t help off of.
AJ Griffin, Duke. Ahh, you say, he’s in the wrong category. AJ Griffin is a three-and-D wing! But is he? Griffin’s defense was mostly bad as a freshman at Duke, with multiple observers lamenting his lost athleticism after knee troubles in high school and Coach K pulling him off the floor during key moments. If Griffin goes in the top 15, it’s because of his amazing shooting.
Patrick Baldwin, Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The bloom is off the rose: Baldwin was hyped as a preseason top 10 prospect, but after an objectively awful season in the Horizon League and ghastly Combine athleticism metrics, he’s now looking more likely to barely fit into the first round if he stays in the draft at all. But he’s a legit 6’10” and has pure shooting mechanics, so odds are that some team will talk themselves into the potential they saw before the season, as the Nuggets did with Michael Porter Jr. a few years back.
THE SHOT-CREATING THIRD GUARD:
JORDAN POOLE, WARRIORS
Jordan Poole, role player? Look, just because you heard it from us that he was a good bet for MIP this year doesn’t mean the rest of the league had our perspicacity . He lasted until 28th in the draft, and had the second lowest VORP in the league his rookie year per Basketball Reference.
But Poole has certainly come into his own. This playoffs, he’s averaging 19 PPG and 4.4 APG on 67% true shooting, making so many tough shots that commentators are in conniptions over what to name the lineup he, Steph and Klay are in.
WHO COULD BENEFIT?
Playoff teams are desperate for as many shot creators as they can get their hands on, especially to fill the offensive void when their primary star is resting. Jrue tried his best but the Bucks only managed a 94 offensive rating with Giannis on the bench, a first percentile result and massive 15 point per 100 drop from minutes with him on the court. So ball handling guards like Poole and Tyler Herro who can create their own shot can find minutes despite their defensive limitations.
Malaki Branham, Ohio State. Branham is another guy who came out of nowhere, rocketing up big boards everywhere despite being outside Vecenie’s top 100 in November. He’s got a smooth jumper that he made off the catch and off the dribble, a silky handle, and measured surprisingly long at the combine. He’s mocked anywhere from the end of the top 10 through the mid 20s, but we’d bet on the earlier part of that range as teams think he could start at SG.
Terquavion Smith, NC State. Another late riser, Smith showed out in the combine, helping his stock with a microwave scorer vibe reminiscent of our old friend Lemon Pepper Lou. It’s harder to envision him starting, so he’s probably going to be lucky to get drafted in the first round, but if he can shoot well enough he could find playoff minutes in a few years.
Likely none of the players we feature will ever be the best player in a playoff series, but it’s clear that success requires a roster that goes 7+ deep. Smart teams can shore up weaknesses on the margins through the draft. Expect to hear many of these names next season.
STL INVESTIGATES: WHETHER THAT ONE GUY IS ACTUALLY FALLING TO YOUR TEAM
So another NBA season has passed, and you are deep into the seven stages of, “My hopes were cruelly crushed again, but next year is going to be different.” You’ve moved through shock, denial, and blaming the refs, and arrived at our favorite stage: mock drafting. But where to look? First, STL offers a quick mock mock.
Upside: Incredible motor on this guy. Mock goes 100 players deep, and is updated constantly.
Must Improve: Limited tape (or in this case, access, since you have to shell out for an Athletic sub before you can get a look)Jeremy Woo, Sports Illustrated
Upside: Wingspan. Woo loves to watch guys play, and reports extensively in person from NCAA games, the combine, and pro days.
Must Improve: Court Vision. He REALLY loves the combine. This leads to him fixating on guys who show out (which looks good when he has Bones Hyland at 25, and less good when Kai Jones lands at 11)
Upside: Basketball body. The Ringer’s Draft Guide looks amazing and is both easy to read and accessible.
Must Improve: Basketball IQ. O’Connor has a tendency to write things like Why Killian Hayes Is the 2020 NBA Draft’s Top Prospect. Yikes.
Upside: Big school pedigree. ESPN is ESPN. They hire people who know their stuff, and have connections.
Must Improve: Limited upside. Not as much depth as the others. Focuses on where players will go, rather than where they should go.
But we can do you one better! We’ve combined all these mocks to give you a look at the range each prospect is projected to go. Now you can confirm that the guy you have your eye on is in fact projected to go right before your team picks, and you don’t even have to leave this page. (Bolded names have wider ranges than normal. Caveat emptor.)
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Is Ben giving up on his Lakers dreams? What’s a young socialite to do without a LA crashpad?
AT THE BUZZER
The oral history of Lebron’s unsanctioned high school workout with the Cavs (Andscape)
Hollinger drops his annual Top 20 NBA Draft Prospects list (Athletic, $)
Antman and a “22 year-old” Boban cameo in Adam Sandler’s new basketball flick (YouTube)
LV x Off-White x Nike — what else is there to say? (Robb Report)