Mostly Harmless 21/22 NBA Prognostications🔮
What should we expect from the 2021/22 NBA season? Plus, working out in sweatpants, dunking on 538, and more
PREGAME
Last year, our predictions turned out startlingly well (we nailed depth mattering, the breakout of the Suns and Hawks, the swoon of the Rockets and Raptors, and Christian Wood’s breakout season). Is this a case of the blind squirrel finding an acorn, or has STL finally dispensed with that old saw about time being linear and the future unknowable? Only one way to find out…
OPENING TIP
At Save the Lottery, we love the offseason. The endless machinations, the breathless coverage, the hope that each city has before a ball has been bounced in anger. But we have to admit there is a thrill when fall arrives, the weather turns cold, and in arenas across the country, hostilities resume in earnest.
The season kicked off Tuesday, and already our cast of characters are doing their things. Giannis is back to punishing defenders in the low block, Jason Tatum is back to digging into his bag, and Russell Westbrook is back to punishing backboards with his jump shot.
But every new season brings change. Just how much change? We generally prefer the predictions of people willing to put their money where their tweets are, so we begin by looking at Vegas over/unders for each team’s record.
So much to take in here. What do these numbers tell us about what bettors expect about this season? A few of our favorite observations:
Nate Bjorkgren really sucked. The Pacers are essentially running back the same team and are expected to win 4 extra games thanks to their coaching upgrade to Rick Carlisle.
Vegas is done with Pop. The Spurs have managed for more than two decades to put together winning season after winning season, but the talent well has run dry and Pop may be out of magic. Or maybe Vegas is wrong and Pop can coax one more playoff run out of Murray and the rest of the young Spurs—that would be quite the curtain call for what many believe will be Pop’s last season.
Jamal Murray is good. The Nuggets are expected to dip six wins off their ‘21 pace despite running back mostly the same team, largely due to Murray’s absence. Could our boy Bones Hyland keep them competitive in the West?
Nobody likes Utah. The Jazz are also getting no love. A team bringing back the same cast and coach after submitting the best regular season in the league is supposed to drop 7 games!
There also are a few win totals here we think deserve a second look.
The Pelicans have an untested coach, a star who is out of shape, with no timetable for his return, and lost their point guard to free agency. That doesn’t actually feel like a recipe for improvement, does it?
We love us some Anthony Edwards, but where else are the Timberwolves going to get that 10 game improvement from, exactly?
The Rockets are an interesting case. They have more talent and are on an upward trajectory, but the front office would surely love a few more high lottery picks. Do you put your money on improved players or a front office determined to be terrible?
And we have more takes! In line with last year, here are our favorite fake lines: the bets you wish you could make on FanDuel but can’t.
Which stars are moving during the season?
Ben Simmons -10,000
Damian Lillard +300
Bradley Beal +500
Karl-Anthony Towns +800
Kyrie Irving +1500
This seems a little easier to predict than last season! Simmons is treading some new ground in the familiar “unhappy star forces his way out” path by practicing with his phone in his pocket (see our Tweet of the Week below). KAT is a real dark horse here. We’d be surprised if he was moved during the season, but stranger things have happened.
Which young team levels up?
Grizzlies +225
Timberwolves +300
Hornets +350
Kings +900
Cavaliers +2000
Are the Grizzlies an obvious pick? They made the playoffs last year and return mostly the same young core, but used their cap space to take on bad contracts (Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams) rather than add free agents that could help. The Wolves might still end up barely sniffing the play in, but remarkable things can happen when you replace a very bad coach with a competent one. The Hornets have a great coach and will have some amazing highlights, but “if Gordon Heyward stays healthy” are the scariest words in the English language.
Which veteran team decides to hit reset?
Wizards +800
Mavs +1000
Blazers +1500
Bulls +2500
We don’t think many vet teams are likely to blow it up this year, even though some arguably should. As we have written before, GMs are an interesting example of the principal-agent problem, particularly with making decisions that can threaten their job security. It can be a tough sell to walk into your owner’s office and tell him, “This team I built is garbage, we should blow it up, and you should keep me around to rebuild it.”
Who will be the first GM fired?
David Griffin +150
Neil Olshey +200
Artūras Karnišovas +300
Rob Pelinka +1000
David Griffin’s “handling” of Zion Williamson has him on track to be the first GM fired, while Olshey wasting Dame’s prime has him close behind.
Karnišovas is a longer shot, but the Bulls bet the house this offseason, and if they flop, they almost can’t afford to wait. And our ultimate long shot is the double agent / author of the Westbrook trade; if (when) that trade goes south, Pelinka will try to make Frank Vogel the fall guy, but maybe, just maybe Jeannie Buss will see through his trickery.
Which young player most exceeds expectations?
OG Anunoby +150
Kevin Porter Jr. +300
Desmond Bane +400
Jordan Poole +500
Robert Williams III +1000
Mo Bamba +2000
It almost feels like cheating to include OG here as literally everyone is picking him for a breakout, so we’ll save our breath for the other guys. KPJ had some impressive games and is crazy talented, but is pretty clearly also just crazy? Bane was used at the point this preseason by the Grizz, drains threes, and plays hard. It’s also worth noting his name is Bane. Poole improved massively year-over-year last year. Based on his preseason he looks poised to sustain that (and had a good first game to boot). Finally, while both centers on this list are long shots to get enough minutes to qualify, they’ve each shown enough late last season and in the preseason to intrigue even our jaded eyes.
Which major change is announced by the League this year?
Midseason tournament for 2022 +200
In-stadium betting +400
Eliminate incoming age limit +500
Dapper Labs wins next TV contract rights +100,000
The NBA is leaning into using the G League as its testing lab and is already experimenting with a midseason tournament a la soccer leagues around the world. Adam Silver has long been a proponent of all things gambling, and also loves technological innovation. The Next Top Shot is around the corner.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
This really screams of a guy who is putting it all on the line for his team.
STL INVESTIGATES: 538
Last week, we mentioned that the 538 odds look a little sketchy when compared to Vegas over/unders. In particular, 538 is high on the Bucks, Clippers, Suns and Jazz, and low on the Nets, Lakers and Warriors relative to Vegas.
So what gives? Is 538 crazy… or crazy like a fox? STL investigates.
Before last season, 538 made some similarly bold predictions. Its model really liked the Rockets (8.5 games more than Vegas—apparently the computer wasn’t reading the Harden gossip on TMZ) and did not like the Wizards (7.5 games less than Vegas). But, (drumroll) was it right?
As it turns out, sometimes! Looking only at the seventeen teams where their predictions diverged by at least two games, 538 outperformed Vegas for 8 of them—nearly a coin flip. However, the average absolute error of Vegas predictions was almost a full game lower than 538, so Vegas still came out ahead.
Breaking down these results, STL has some insight: 538 suffers from being a robot. Its 43 win (in a 72 game season) projection for Houston made perfect sense in the context of a James Harden-led team that was coming off a strong 2019-2020, but ignored the near-certainty that Harden would soon be on a different roster. Similarly, it got tripped up by the abysmal 2019-20 Warriors and underestimated the impact that Steph’s return would have on them.
(Side note: Draymond has the fascinating ability of being an amazing player with Steph on the court and near useless without him. Overall he led the Warriors in On/Off differential last year with a +15.1 point differential, but that gap evaporated when Steph sat. The Warriors with Steph and Dray had an 89th percentile lineup and +7.6 net rating; with Draymond alone, they slumped to a -3.9 net rating.)
Returning to this season, 538 has clearly tried to account for things their model might miss. They assume Ben Simmons will play 50% of the season; they lowball their expectation of Klay Thompson’s performance upon his return due to his injury history; and they assume Kyrie continues to be Kyrie (and thus does not play at all this season).
It’s easy to dismiss projections when they make big, dumb mistakes, but there is another way to look at the model. When 538 isn’t tripping over its lack of current events knowledge, it’s outperforming the public. The obvious answer is simply to feed the computer all the news from TMZ, but we’re pretty sure that’s what caused SKYNET to become self aware.
AT THE BUZZER
For those who have seen the viral videos of the Balloon World Cup, you have former Barca star Pique to thank (Goal.com)
Kentucky star recruit signs NIL deal with Porsche dealership. (ESPN)
Hollinger on NBA extensions (The Athletic, $)
Marvin Bagley’s agent has a tantrum on Twitter (Twitter)
Insider footage of the Sixers’ practice gym (Instagram)