Lace 'em up, Cinderella👸
Eight guys who will make March Madness fun, @rp3natural positions, and more.
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OPENING TIP
Last week, we explained why the evolving path to the pros was taking some of the shine off March Madness. But this week, we come not to bury the NCAA tournament, but to praise it. Get hype!
Students of the draft have had their pick of many different online rankings of lottery bound players, and most will authoritatively inform you of where they rank in the pecking order. And they will largely be wrong, because evaluating NBA talent is REALLY hard. We thought that instead we’d take a look at a few of the more interesting players to check out during the NCAA tournament, with an eye toward just why scouting them is so tricky, across three different groups. Let’s get to it.
GROUP ONE: STUDS
Cade Cunningham (Wing, Oklahoma State): Cunningham is going number one barring an assassination, but he has still managed to cause some debate in the STL offices. His game is remarkably well-rounded and mature and he has one of the highest floors in recent memory. But how high is his ceiling? He’s an excellent passer, to be sure. But his handle is good, not elite. His shooting is good, not elite. His athleticism is good, not elite. Cunningham is by all accounts a hard worker, and should improve, but let’s not crown him just yet.
Evan Mobley (Center, USC): Mobley has a tantalizing skill set in his painfully skinny, 7’-0”, 210lb frame. His defense is already fantastic, showing signs of switchability in addition to his ridiculous length; he shows amazing patience and anticipation on blocks. He has some very pretty back shoulder/jump hook post moves. How much weight can he add? He has a developing off-the-dribble game which isn’t there yet. He has a silky smooth shot for a guy his size, but it doesn’t always go in. Will he end up a terrifying combination of Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant, or will he end up too thin to defend 5s yet not consistently able to stretch the floor?
Jalen Suggs (Guard, Gonzaga): Suggs is an explosive athlete (you are going to hear that he was a highly rated QB prospect a LOT of times in the next few months). He has great court vision, and can score in a variety of ways. He has all the tools to be a star. He was also often the third option on a hugely talented Gonzaga team. If you draft Suggs, are you drafting an all-star, or the perfect role player?
GROUP TWO: CONFUSING WHITE GUYS
Luka Garza (Forward, Iowa): We believe it was Shakespeare who first wrote: “White guys, sometimes, they cannot jump.” Luka Garza is going to be the National Player of the Year. He has unbelievable hands. He is averaging 24 pts, 9 reb, and 2 blocks per game. He is shooting almost 45% from three! He is also slow, so very, very slow, and plays defense like his feet are nailed to the floor. Can a highly polished, dominant Player of the Year really just be too slow for the NBA? Almost certainly yes, which is why Luka is destined for the second round.
Corey Kispert (Wing, Gonzaga): Where Kispert goes in the draft will tell us a lot about just how important shooting has become in the NBA game. Kispert profiles as an elite shooter (Joe Harris and Kyle Korver are the most commonly heard comps), but he’s already 22, doesn’t dribble, is not a good passer, does not move well laterally on defense, and no one thinks much of his basketball IQ. Joe Harris and Kyle Korver were both drafted in the second round, yet Kispert seems destined for the lottery.
GROUP THREE: SLEEPERS
Trey Murphy III (Wing, Virginia): Murphy transferred to UVA from Rice this fall, and thanks to NCAA COVID rules became instantly eligible. He made an immediate impact, hitting threes at a high clip while defending three positions. Just don’t ask him to handle the ball. If UVA has any hope of defending their title, he’ll need to have a big tournament.
Jason Preston (Guard, Ohio): Players like Luka Doncic and Chris Paul share two important traits: X-ray court vision and an uncanny ability to force their opponents to play at their speed. Preston has a little of this. This is a VERY tricky thing to project, but we think Preston has a chance to be something interesting at the next level. UVA fans are understandably nervous about the chances of a 4-13 upset against Ohio.
Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland (Guard, VCU): Bones has serious potential: he is explosive to the basket, an elite three point shooter, and works hard on defense. He’s also 6’3” and projects more as a combo guard than a “pure” point guard. We used to call guys who looked to score first but were too small to be pure shooting guards “tweeners.” Now we just call them All Stars.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
We enjoyed Kirk Goldsberry’s visual exploration of the concentration of superstars in elite coastal cities. Only three out of seventeen active First-Team All-NBA players play in a city east of Phoenix but west of Washington DC… and each was acquired in the draft.
THE POSITIONS EVOLVE
One of our favorite residents of NBA twitter is Rashad Phillips, also known as @RP3natural. A former point guard who played at the University of Detroit, Rashad was a diminutive but deadly scorer whose skills were underappreciated by the NBA at the time. Today, similar players (deadly shooters who can also make plays, like Carsen Edwards or Tyrell Terry) are drafted in the first round, but Rashad was forced to play pro ball overseas.
Now, in addition to advocating for underappreciated NBA prospects from smaller schools, Rashad has developed a new set of positions that he uses to explain player archetypes. These archetypes expand the classic five positions we all know and love to explain how the NBA is evolving.
We loved this concept, so we decided to take RP3’s positions and graph them on two axes: playmaking ability and scoring ability. Then, we showed how “classic” positions are evolving into Rashad’s new archetypes. (Learn how Rashad defines his new positions here.)
Three key takeaways:
Overall, teams need more playmaking AND scoring from all positions. As you can tell, the new positions are moving into the upper right quadrant. The more of those guys you can have on the floor, while maintaining excellent D, the better. Think the Lakers (with LeBron as a Dual Forward and AD as a Hybrid Post), the Warriors (Steph HG / Draymond HP), and the Nuggets (Jokic PC / Jamal Murray HG) as good examples.
The role of the point guard has evolved. If we drew this chart 30 years ago, the PG circle would be in the lower right (where the TG spot is now). But the modern NBA requires PGs to score and make plays for his teammates.
The most coveted assets are Hybrid Guards and Dual Forwards. Any team with one of these players has a shot at contention. Why is Cade Cunningham going to be drafted first overall? Look no further.
We plan to dig into these positions in more detail in the weeks to come. Stay tuned.
AT THE BUZZER
LeBron exploring a path to owning an NBA team (ESPN+, $)
Fanatics billion-dollar aspirations for its memorabilia arm (Sportico)
NFL signs record TV deal. The NBA is next. (Bloomberg)
Do LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges have the longest handshake in the NBA? (imgur)
March 11, 2020: the day the NBA shut down (30 for 30 Podcasts)