OPENING TIP
Welcome back! The playoffs are in full swing, and after a very chalk first round, the second round did not disappoint (unless you are Deandre Ayton’s agent). Just look at the evolution of the Vegas odds — Dallas was left for dead on May 5th, and now enters the Conference Finals with a healthy 12% chance at a chip.
The Warriors are now the clear favorites, but each team still has a chance. Anyone counting out the Mavs or Heat at this stage hasn’t been paying attention. We’ll evaluate the team construction lessons of these final four teams in a future letter (or you can look at the “spaceball” link below for a sneak preview).
Unfortunately, with so many fewer teams still involved, chances are your favorite team is in Cancun. So we’re turning our eyes for a moment to an already underway offseason that will likely be a crucial one for a number of teams.
We have some predictions! Now, we can already hear you (yes, you): “But, but the lottery hasn’t even happened1, never mind free agency or the draft, so how could you possibly know anything yet?” Oh ye of little faith. You see, STL has read the augurs, and we can teach you to do so as well.
We’ll let you in on our secret. When GMs, coaches and owners face the media after a season, they have an agenda. They’re sending a message to someone. And if you listen carefully, it isn’t too hard to pick up on what the message is and who it’s intended for.
HAWKS
Observe: a news item in its natural habitat:
What is this news item trying to tell us? Perhaps you think it is telling us that the Atlanta Hawks won’t stand pat this offseason. But that is because you are a poor, simple moron.
You must look deeper! First, it’s worth noting that Tony Ressler, like most other owners, doesn’t do media availabilities. Owners are not obligated to talk to the press whenever they ask, and unless they are Mark Cuban, they don’t. So it’s unlikely that this article happens at all unless Ressler agrees to do an interview. Then we can proceed with the assumption that Tony Ressler has ulterior motives beyond vague assurances to Hawks fans at a random time.
Allow us to translate:
Ressler said he has "enormous confidence" in [Travis] Schlenk and coach Nate McMillan, while adding that he, the GM and coach "all underperformed" this season.
Translation: You should know that despite Nate McMillan’s statuesque courtside affect and steadfast refusal to call plays, alter his rotation, or use his timeouts or challenges to alter the course of a game, he’s not going anywhere, thanks for asking. Things couldn’t be more stable and functional here in the A (for any potential star players considering a new residence in Buckhead). Oh, and Travis has plenty of job security so please don’t ask him to throw in unprotected 2026 draft picks.
Ressler's frank appraisal is an endorsement of a plan to shake up the roster for next season. It's possible any player other than Young could be available in a trade.
Translation: Please call our GM with whatever you’re shopping. There’s no endowment effect here, we promise. We’re ready to deal.
"Going into the tax does not scare us," Ressler said.
"Going into the tax is not, in my view, at least, only possible if we are competing for a championship in that season. Our job is to go into a tax when it's good business, to position ourselves for greatness... We do not fear spending money. We fully expect Atlanta to be a truly attractive marketplace for whomever considers playing here. Money is not going to be our obstacle."
Translation: This is an interesting one. On the one hand, Ressler is trying to help his GM. If the other GMs know you can never go into the tax, well, that’s when they can get paid to take your good players, like you saw when the Suns panic-dumped T.J. Warren on Indiana (*cough* Sarver sucks *cough*).
Also, there are a number of players who have important personal decisions coming up. In particular, Zach LaVine and Deandre Ayton both have decisions to make about whether to re-sign with their current teams. Now, the Hawks obviously can’t reach out to those two players. It’s way outside the free agency period, and that would be tampering. If only there were some way for the Hawks to communicate their willingness to go into the tax to make a deal work. If only.
Asked if the team needs another star to join Young, Ressler said, "I think every team in the NBA should add a superstar whenever they can, and I promise you we're no exception."
Mmhmm.
So what do the tea leaves tell us? The Hawks think they have a chance at one of the premier players that might become available this offseason, and want to make sure that those guys’ representatives perceive the Hawks as a viable landing spot.
BULLS
Listen to what GM Arturas Karnisovas was saying:
I hope for continuity because we're constantly competing against teams that have been together for three, four, five years. Results come obviously when you keep the same group longer.
"We've always been ready for what comes our way," said Karnišovas. "So hopefully we can keep the core together and like you (media) said, work around the margins. We're gonna look at free agents and see what else we need. We're gonna be in the draft. We still have Portland's (future No. 1 lottery protected) pick.
Playing together for a longer period of time is gonna contribute to familiarity and feeling more comfortable in tough situations.
"I would say that there were a lot of good moments in the first half of the season, and we're really happy that we ended up with DeMar and Zach playing in the All-Star Game,"
Did we mention that Zach LaVine was a free agent this summer? If you’re wondering why Karnisovas is so nervous, just read the part of LaVine’s exit interview where he describes how he and Rich Paul “plan… to enjoy free agency.”
Karnisovas can be forgiven for seeming a bit one-note, but we can also see the pitch he will be making to LaVine. We’ll improve with familiarity, we have a pick, you keep making the All-Star game here, please, for the love of god, re-sign. There was one other thing of note:
“I'm hoping for durability, I'm a positive guy," Karnišovas said with a smile. "We're gonna look at everything and we're gonna try to get them healthy this summer leading into training camp.”
This felt like a slightly weird endorsement of the teams health with a whole summer off. Then this hit: The Bulls' Front Office Has "Serious Concerns" About Lonzo Ball's Knee. This isn’t just smoke, it’s fire.
JAZZ
There is perhaps no team with bigger decisions to make this summer than the Utah Jazz. Fresh off a playoff disappointment that surprised exactly no one, everyone is calling for the Jazz to blow it. Will they? We got our leaves from here.
IF THE JAZZ needed a reminder of what the future could hold for their franchise superstar, all they needed to do was look courtside during their April 16 playoff opener at Dallas' American Airlines Center.
New York Knicks executive vice president William Wesley sat next to power forward Julius Randle, a Dallas native, the duo visible to television viewers every time the action changed ends of the floor. Allan Houston, the former All-Star shooting guard who is now the Knicks' assistant general manager, sat a few rows behind the Jazz's bench.
Yeah. The Knicks are widely expected to make a run at Jalen Brunson this summer, and their surprise appearance at the game was attributed a desire to take a look at him in person. STL reads the tea leaves, and…. Nah. Like…Nah. First, Brunson is not going to be a max guy. If you want to sign a player like that ahead of your rivals, you don’t need to sweet-talk him. Offer him the most money.
Second, the Knicks personnel decisions are led by GM Scott Perry. But Perry was nowhere to be found; instead, the Knicks sent William “World Wide Wes” Wesley. While Wesley is a “senior advisor” to the Knicks, he was hired away from Creative Artists Agency (CAA).
Zero points for guessing who is a CAA client (Donovan Mitchell… it’s Donovan Mitchell). And lest you think that’s at all a stretch, well, Knicks president Leon Rose founded CAA’s basketball division, and after hiring Wesley, the Knicks immediately hired Tom Thibodeau as coach, who is represented by… yep, CAA.
Okay, so maybe, just maybe we can infer that the Knicks are interested in making a play for Mitchell. Are the Jazz likely to be receptive?
Well, we’d be surprised if the Jazz wanted to move him. Utah isn’t exactly a free agent mecca, and their odds of signing someone of Mitchell’s caliber to replace him are essentially nil. But! Whether Mitchell stays is not really up to the Jazz. Look no further than James Harden if you want to know how hard it is for a star to pout their way out of town.
And then this came across our desks:
This week, along with the rest of the NBA, the Utah Jazz brain trust, led by Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik and their scouting department, will be in Chicago. That’s where the NBA Draft Combine, along with the G League Elite Camp will be.
The Jazz will be busy. There will be interviews. There will be evaluations. There will be 16-hour workdays. There will be exhaustion by this time next week.
As the article goes on to point out, the Jazz… don’t have a pick in the upcoming draft. So why an article in The Athletic about how they are cosplaying as a team with several? Look, many things can change in a few months, but STL thinks it’s weird that these particular tea leaves formed a perfect representation of a big apple.
LAKERS
We’re still not done though! Let’s turn to our favorite article of the early offseason, Lakers owner Jeanie Buss’ interview with Bill Plaschke:
“In terms of basketball decisions, I have complete confidence in our front office, which is headed by Rob Pelinka,” she said. “He is a person that is extremely smart, extremely strategic, everything he does is thoughtful and with purpose. … I have complete confidence that he can put together a roster and find a coach that is going to get us back to where we belong.”
Okay… obviously Rob Pelinka isn’t exactly killing it these days. (Longtime readers would be tempted to point to the time we alleged he was secretly a genius, but unfortunately for them, the NFT of that column was sold on the Luna blockchain and has been subsequently vaporized).
Anyway, Jeannie must have a point here, let’s keep searching:
“I know that there’s been some unfair criticism of Kurt Rambis,” she said. “I want to remind people, he’s been involved in the NBA for close to 40 years, that he has been a part of championship teams both as a player and assistant coach, he is someone I admire for his basketball knowledge.”
Kurt Rambis? The same Kurt Rambis with a 29% winning percentage as a coach? Why would he be involved in decision making?
“In terms of Linda Rambis, she does not have a role in the basketball department; her role is, as it’s been for the last almost 40 years, is as my advisor,” Buss said. “She and I have worked together for years and years and years. Why that has become an issue for people, I don’t understand.”
Linda Rambis!? The wife of Kurt Rambis is an advisor? But doesn’t have a role. Maybe this is signaling that… so, just give us a minute, okay?
“...the collaboration cab just became a little more crowded with the addition of Magic Johnson … I know that’s in his heart, and I trust him, and … my relationship with him is as good as it’s ever been.”
So is she relying on him again? “Absolutely,” she said.
Wait, Magic Johnson? The same Magic that Buss recently fired? Who trashed Rob Pelinka on his way out the door, accusing him of ‘whispering’ and ‘betrayal’? Maybe this means… um…
She is also getting input from Jackson, a five-time Lakers title coach and her former boyfriend who spends several months a year in Los Angeles. He has become another one of her confidants during this tough stretch.
“People see us around town, we have breakfast, lunch, dinner, whatever … it’s not anything romantic,” she said.
Oh come on! Phil Jackson is not also advising basketball operations! This is a prank, right?
Buss agreed to this interview because, after watching a team with a handful of future Hall of Famers miss the playoffs in arguably the most disappointing season in Lakers history, she felt she had been too quiet for too long.
Oh man. The tea leaves… ah… Look, just because we at Save The Lottery have supernatural powers when it comes to predicting the NBA future, doesn’t mean we have any idea what is going on in LA, okay? That’s a bridge too far.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Pat Bev coming in hot during his First Take appearance…
AT THE BUZZER
Hollinger: it wasn’t “small ball” that did in the Bucks and Suns, it was “space ball” (The Athletic, $)
It’s mock draft szn! CBS thinks Keegan Murray could go third. We think CBS had a stroke. (CBS)
ESPN highlights the biggest storylines at the Combine. The NBA finally figured out how to make the good players show up! (ESPN+, $)
Nikola Jokic’s horse is ready for his closeup. (Yahoo)
Programming note: 5pm PT tonight. Avert your eyes, Lakers fans!