Programming note: Weâll be back with a recap of the trade deadline next week.
OPENING TIP
Welcome! The NBA trade deadline cometh imminently, and at STL we canât help but be reminded of a classic American parable. In O. Henryâs 1905 short story The Gift of the Magi, a couple each sells their most valuable possession in order to purchase a gift for the other. Perhaps Monte McNair was reading this story when he agreed to send Tyrese Haliburton to the Pacers for Domas Sabonis. Surely nothing less that true love for a tall Lithuanian would prompt him to agree to part with something as dear as Haliburton (with his 58% true shooting, 41% three-point percentage, and 94th-percentile assist rate).
McNair should have read all the way to the end! (Editorâs note: spoilers.) The two lovers donât come out ahead. Della cut her beautiful hair in order to afford a watch chain for Jim; Jim sold his grandfatherâs gold watch to buy a jeweled brush for Della. And while the storyâs irony has been termed classically endearing, we suspect that fans of the Kings (and maybe the Pacers) will be less impressed.
As we noted last month, the most common type of trade is ânow for later.â Teams willingly sacrifice their ability to win games in the present for the chance to improve their team in the future.
See that bar on the far right? The least common type of deadline trade is the challenge trade, a swap of two players of roughly equal âwin nowâ value. Unlike fans composing fake trades against a robot who never says no, real-world executives realize you have to give to get. Thus, challenge trades are rare, as cognitive biases like the endowment effect and loss aversion tend to eat up any margin in a GMâs valuation of an opposing player relative to his own.
This brings us back to the Kings trade.
The Haliburton for Sabonis trade straddles the line between trade archetypes. Sabonis is 25, a two-time All Star, and two years away from unrestricted free agency; Haliburton is 21, a rising star but far from an All Star, and seven years away from being able to choose his own team. Okay, it seems clear that the Kings are giving up future value to add Sabonis and put themselves over the top. But alert readers may be asking themselves: the top of what? The Kings are 20-35!
Usually the teams that sacrifice their future are the ones gunning for a championship: think the Harden trade, or Jrue Holiday to the Bucks, or the Lakers snagging AD. So, maybe this isnât a Now for Later, but a Challenge Trade?
Itâs worth noting that the Kings may not be done. Long rumored to be shopping forward Harrison Barnes, the Kings are now apparently telling teams that heâs only available in a move that helps their playoff chances this year:
So the Kings are willing to trade Barnes (a good player helping them win right now) but only if it helps them win more. That definitely sounds like a challenge trade! (Editorâs note: Donât hold your breath: Barnes wonât be traded.)
But perhaps there are also good reasons why so few challenge trades are consummated each year. Letâs review a few of the more high profile challenge trades of the past few years:
The Toronto Raptors traded Norman Powell to the Portland Trail Blazers for Rodney Hood and Gary Trent Jr.
The Blazers bet on Powell being able to play the three next to two small guards; they have already moved on from that fantasy and are speeding towards a rebuild, while Trent has thrived in the same role Powell played (but for less money).The Golden State Warriors traded D'Angelo Russell, Jacob Evans, and Omari Spellman to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins, a 2021 1st round draft pick and a 2021 2nd round draft pick.
We loved this trade! Shortly before it happened, we identified both Russell and Wiggins as owners of two of the worst contracts in the NBA. The Wolves were so desperate to move off of Wiggins that they included a lightly-protected first to do so. Russell has beenâŚfine? But Wiggins has become an All Star starter by being asked to do less.The Houston Rockets traded Chris Paul, a 2024 1st round draft pick, a 2026 1st round draft pick, and two pick swaps to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Russell Westbrook.
Chris Paul has made the playoffs each season since leaving Houston, and took the Suns to within two games of a championship last year. Meanwhile, the Lakers may need to attach an asset to Russ just to acquire the corpse of John Wall.The Boston Celtics traded Terry Rozier and a 2020 2nd round draft pick to the Charlotte Hornets for Kemba Walker and a 2020 2nd round draft pick.
Technically a sign-and-trade, who would have guessed that Kemba would be by far the lesser player traded in this deal not two seasons later? You guessed it, the Celtics regret this one.In a 4-team trade, the Atlanta Hawks traded a 2026 2nd round draft pick to the Houston Rockets; the Atlanta Hawks traded Evan Turner and a 2020 1st round draft pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves; the Denver Nuggets traded Malik Beasley, Juan Hernangomez and Jarred Vanderbilt to the Minnesota Timberwolves; the Houston Rockets traded Clint Capela and Nene to the Atlanta Hawks; the Houston Rockets traded Gerald Green and a 2020 1st round draft pick to the Denver Nuggets; the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Keita Bates-Diop, Shabazz Napier and Noah Vonleh to the Denver Nuggets; and the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Jordan Bell and Robert Covington to the Houston Rockets.
What a mouthful. Focusing on the Rockets part of this trade, they effectively traded Clint Capela and a first round pick for Robert Covington, needing his skills to prop up an ultra-small ball lineup necessitated by Russâs limitations. After a second round exit to the Lakers, Covington was shipped out the next season as the Rockets exploded.The Dallas Mavericks traded Seth Curry to the Philadelphia 76ers for Tyler Bey and Josh Richardson.
A classic challenge trade: the Mavs, convinced they needed a 3-and-D wing next to Luka, traded the deadeye-shooting Curry for Richardson. Curry played the best basketball of his life and helped the Sixers to the #1 overall seed in the East. Richardson lost his shooting sneakers on the plane, and has been a disaster who couldnât crack the starting lineup in Dallas, and now eats up bench minutes for the Celtics.
We could go on. In almost every challenge trade, one of the two teams badly misevaluated the player they were getting, and the team paying the dearer price frequently ended up with the worse player.
Which brings us finally back to our story. Domas Sabonis, despite his defensive shortcomings, is a legitimately good offensive player, the rare passing big man who can also destroy mismatches in the low post. He is most in his element while surrounded by good shooters who can space the floor, which lets him go to work against his man without the fear of a double team.
But Monte McNair, in his desperation to bring Sabonis to Sacramento, traded his teamâs two best (only?) three point shooters to get him! The highest-paid remaining King, DeâAaron Fox, is a career 32% three-point shooter (26% this year) who is at his best pushing the ball on the break, something Sabonis is loath to do. 2021 lottery pick Davion Mitchell is also not a great shooter and plays the same position as Fox. So how did this one get done? Well, fortunately for you, STL has obtained actual audio of the front office conversation between McNair and Kings owner Vivek Ranadive.
Ranadive: Monty! In my office, now!
McNair: Whatâs up boss?
Ranadive: Theyâre doing it again Monty.
McNair: âŚ
Ranadive: If I have to read one more [redacted] article talking about how we havenât made the playoffs in 15 years, I am going to stroke out! Iâm [redacted] serious Monty. 16 years will be the all-time record, and I will [redacted] your [redacted] until your unborn grandchildren [redacted] before we set that record! Do something, Monty, because we are losing in the first round of the playoffs this year or bust, you [redacted] [redacted]
McNair: [redacted]
So that explains a few things. But thatâs not the only takeaway from this delightful trade. Because in true Gift of the Magi style, we think there is an outside chance that the Pacers could lose this trade too! At the very least weâre holding off booking our flight to Tyrese Haliburtonâs Hall of Fame induction ceremony for the time being. While Haliburton is a talented player who has answered some of the questions asked about him pre-draft (most notably whether he would shoot threes off the dribble and if he could operate out of pick-and-roll), heâs still a low-usage guard who is too slight to guard wings (or even stout 2s). When Haliburton has been asked to play point, the Kings have struggledâoutscored by 15 points per 100 possessions with a 9th percentile offense and defense.
No one knows what the future will hold for Haliburton or the Kings, but weâre glad this trade came along to remind us of the true meaning of Christmas, what O. Henry was trying to tell us back in 1905: be grateful that you arenât a Kings fan.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Looks like Magic wasnât too pleased with the Lakersâ performance last night in Portland!
STL PRESENTS: RETRACTIONS
It is incumbent upon all upstanding members of the fourth estate to ensure that they pursue the truth wherever it leads. And when the good ship Inquisitiveness founders on the shoals of controversy and inaccuracy, its sailors must stand up and call themselves to account. In the new year, we would like to set the record straight about several stories that have previously run under our banner.
On Oct. 29th we suggested that Ben Simmons and Kendall Jenner were still dating when in fact they totally broke up months earlier. And since, Ben and Maya Jama have fallen âmadly in loveâ and actually weâre hearing they are engaged. STL regrets the error.
We also previously suggested that Kyrie Irvingâs anti-vax stance seemed vague and poorly articulated. We have since learned that maybe itâs just that heâs a vegetarian?
Kyrie Irving Could Take Plant-Based Vaccine. We apologize and plan to make a donation to Irvingâs charity for those forced out of work by the pandemic, should he ever start one.Finally, in September of 2020, we wrote a piece wondering whether, contrary to appearances, Rob Pelinka might secretly be a genius. He is not. The team member responsible for this article has been assassinated, and we have retained Internet Reputation Services to scrub all traces of that piece from the internet.
AT THE BUZZER
Which GM is the biggest trade deadline wheeler-dealer? (The Ringer)
Kings fans celebrate the Sabonis acquisition (Reddit)
Maybe this explains why Cam Reddish isnât playing. (NY Post)
Sixth grade boys arenât lining up to take a charge from Erick Dampierâs son. (Barstool)
Kevin Peltonâs trade deadline grades (ESPN+, $)