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OPENING TIP
The newest trend in the NBA: benching guys on max contracts. Cavs big man Andre Drummond, who is currently averaging 18 points and 14 rebounds a game, has been shut down indefinitely. And in Detroit, Blake Griffin has similarly been put on ice. Are they injured? No. Violation of team rules? No. In fact, they are both guilty of something much, much worse: they both have terrible, no good, very bad contracts.
As Cleveland and Detroit have discovered, little in professional basketball is as damaging to the building of a championship contender as a terrible contract. Drummond makes $28.8 million this year, Griffin is in year four of a five year, $173 million dollar deal, and neither is a lock for a starting job any longer, much less a starring role as their salaries would suggest.Â
So both franchises are shutting their big men down and hoping they can get 25 cents on the dollar to ship them out of town. We wish them luck! It got us thinking: these are two terrible contract situations that more or less preclude fielding a competitive roster, but are they the worst the NBA has to offer?
Turns out, remarkably, there are worse out there. It seems every year a new team steps up to pen a contract that often looks disastrous even before the ink is dry. Â
Ever alert to how we can make basketball better, we put together this handy guide to how to sign your favorite player to a terrible contract.
Look for older players.
In a game where elite athleticism is an absolute must, getting old damages your value faster than you can say âDwyane Wade.â When we look at the data, age 28 is the point at which things start to become dicey.
Look for players who just played the best basketball of their careers.
Did someone have the week of their life in the playoffs against you? Snap that guy up. No way he reverts to how he usually plays once you start writing him massive checks. Recency bias rears its ugly head.
The contract must be long. Very long.
You know who can predict the future? You. Probably. Either way, donât worry about it, you got your guy locked up!
Bet heavily on players who rely on athleticism.
Speedsters who can jump out of the gym are often high impact players. The issue of course is that if that athleticism goes, through age or injury, that high flying style becomes useless in a hurry. Blake Griffin once dunked the ball 214 times in a season, and used to average a dunk on more than 20% of his field goal attempts. This season? Zero dunks out of 81 field goals attempted.
Offer max money to a player who isnât one of your best two players.
Okay, so your guy isnât quite there yet. In fact, heâs really more of a role player for you. Heâll get there! Itâs best to just bite that bullet and pay for production that may or may not materialize.
You MUST re-sign your own players.
Have a promising player on your team already? Donât let him go! I donât care how much money he wants, you have to keep him! The endowment effect is tough to overcome.
When we look at some of the most memorable (ahem) contracts over the past few years, all of them exhibit at least three or more of these characteristics:
Next, we thought weâd use this framework to predict which of the larger contracts signed in the past twelve months were most likely to age poorly. Behold, our top three:
Gordon Hayward (4 years, $120 million)
Hayward has played well this season, but this contest isnât about how you start, itâs about how you finish. Hayward is an older player on a four year deal who didnât always play in crunch time for the Celtics, a good but sub championship level team. This one could get ugly just in time to waste LaMeloâs prime.Rudy Gobert (5 years, $228 million)
One category we didnât list above is âhave your franchise acquired by a superfan with limited basketball knowledge.â Vivek Ranadive gave out a bunch of awful contracts in his first couple years as Kings owner, and we canât help but suspect that billionaire xxâs acquisition of the Jazz played a part in Rudy getting paid. While heâs a great player right now and has a great nickname (see below), this one is a huge risk to age poorly due to Rudyâs reliance on athleticism and limited offensive skill level.Pascal Siakam (4 years, $130 million)
One to keep an eye on. Siakam is a good player and has been a great story, but he was an older rookie who has progressed from G-Leaguer to max player. The Raptors may be realizing the ceiling on their team that exists with him as one of your best players.
And to be extra provocative, here are three more âbad contractsâ that havenât even been signed yet:
Victor Oladipo
Dipo made no secret (to other teams!) about his desire to get out of Indy. Now heâs the biggest ball hog in the league on a below average team. There are a lot of teams with cap space this summer and not great options for those dollars. Expect buyerâs remorse.Jrue Holiday
Heâs getting up in age, Milwaukee traded their entire future away to get him and so will be desperate to keep him, his defense relies on quickness and athleticism, and heâs the top free agent available so heâll demand a max length extension. The perfect recipe for an ugly contract.James Harden
Harden in some respects seems like he might be an outlier: heâs super skilled, he doesnât rely on athleticism, and superstars tend to age better than mere stars. But heâs going to be eligible for a five year supermax extension. Would you want to pay 37-year-old James Harden $64 million in 2027? Best of luck, Sean Marks!
So why is it that GMs just canât resist paying up to extend players to long term deals? We suspect they would rather risk looking foolish tomorrow than guarantee looking foolish today. Plus, itâs tough to overcome cognitive biases like loss aversion, recency bias, and the endowment effect.
Perhaps you made a questionable lottery pick and think that cutting bait would make you look bad to your owner? Better double down and hope for the best. Execute a mid-season trade for an aging vet? Whatâs a few extra million⌠wouldnât want to lose him for nothing! Fan favorite coming off knee surgery? Why not just keep everyone happy... if things work out, youâre a hero, and if they donât, youâll be long gone when the next GM has to deal with the consequences.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
STL INVESTIGATES: NICKNAMES
Draymond Green is starting to regain his form. Whether itâs defending positions one through five, or being willing to kick the opposing big man in the nuts, we can all agree, Draymond is a beast.
Kelley Oubre is not any of those things, but we can agree that he is a very handsome man. Â
So it was with considerable satisfaction that STL noticed that NBA fans had begun referring to lineups featuring the two players together as âBeauty and the Beast.â We have long been fans of multiple player nicknames, whether itâs the Splash Brothers or Larry Nanceâs new stroke of brilliance for his teammates Darius Garland and Colin Sexton:
But it made us think, are there other NBA nicknames that our devoted readers might not know about that they really should? Why yes, yes there are.
There is a sticky question, which is what constitutes an official nickname, but fortunately, the media is on this. Basketball Referenceâone of the best collections of data and statisticsânow lists player nicknames, so weâre good. Letâs take a quick spin around the NBA.
Weâll be confining ourselves mostly to current players, but two recently retired players deserve a quick mention.
Nik âSauce Castilloâ Stauskas
Because: Apparently during an TNT broadcast, a glitch with closed captioning caused Stauskasâ name to be dictated âSauce Castilloâ, and since that is superior to Nik Stauskas in every way, the name immediately stuck.
Corey âBad Pornâ Maggette.Â
Because: The name perfectly captures the frustration of watching Maggette play. âA lot of penetration, a lot of scoring, but ultimately everyone is appalled by what they are watching.â
Rudy âThe Stifle Towerâ Gobert
Because: Heâs huge. Heâs the best defender in the league. Heâs French. Job done.
Brooke âSplash Mountainâ Lopez
Because: Lopez is a massive seven-footer who has a surprisingly nice stroke from the three-point line. Also he and his brother love Disney World so much they actually have houses on the property.
Andre âBig Penguinâ Drummond
Because: Apparently when trying to get to know their new teammate in Detroit, teammates asked Drummond what his favorite movie was and were taken aback to find out it was Happy Feet. Turns out Drummond loves penguins.Â
Lauri âthe Finnisherâ Markkanen
Because: Guess which Scandinavian country Markkanen is from?
CJ âCJ Kilometersâ Miles
Because: When youâre named CJ Miles, and you sign with the Toronto Raptors, your teammates are gonna make sure you embrace the metric system.
Kevin âThe Slim Reaperâ Durant
Because: This has been floated as a nickname for KD for ages, but for some reason Durant has always disavowed it. Until a couple months ago, when Durant finally gave it his blessing. Rejoice!
Finally, alert readers may remember that STL called out the Raptorsâ little-known big Chris Boucher as a long shot breakout player of the year. (Side note: Boucher is breaking out.)Â We recently saw two excellent nicknames proposed for him:Â Â
Option one:Â âThe Swatterboyâ
Because: Boucher is a prodigious shot blocker, and Adam Sandlerâs character from The Waterboy? Bobby Boucher.
Option two: âBlock Quebecoisâ
Because: The blocks, of course, but Boucher is in fact from Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois is a political party. Canadian humor, come on!
Okay readers, letâs make one of these nicknames happen.
AT THE BUZZER
Limited edition Luka rookie sells for $800k at auction. Asset bubble, what asset bubble? (Hypebeast)
Speaking of asset bubbles: guy spends $100k for non-exclusive rights to Zion highlight (ESPN+, $).
How KD came back from the worst injury in basketball (WSJ, $)
The irrepressible Sam Vecenie ranks all 30 teams by young talent (Athletic, $)
Mike Prada on why the Hawks offense is so average despite Trae Youngâs gifts (Substack)