OPENING TIP
Since the NBA was founded in 1946, over 62,000 games have been played... and not one was played on a neutral court. [1]
Until now. This is a huge change: typically, home teams win around 60% of their games, and teams fight to the death for the right to play at home in the playoffs. Stan Van Gundy has suggested that we will see teams prioritize health in the final seeding games, while Nate Duncan wondered if teams would be more willing to drop to a lower seed to get a matchup they want.
Once the playoffs arrive, it will get even more interesting. Without home court advantage, we expect to see higher seeds underperform pre-bubble expectations. It seems that Vegas has already decided that outcome is likely. But predictions on what effect the lack of home court advantage might have on outcomes seems predicated on understanding what home court advantage represents. The academics tell us:
It's probably the fans.
Unless it's actually the refs.
Unless of course it's the travel.
Or maybe it's ... Hawk/Dove theory?
So it looks like the literature has explained at least 300% of the home court advantage effect for us. You're welcome.
Still, we have questions.
1. Will teams with significant home-road splits underperform?
The poster child for this question is Philadelphia, who has a historically bad home-road differential. So the question becomes: is a neutral court game the equivalent of an away game for both teams, or something unique?
(Side note: we have not yet heard a convincing argument explaining the Sixers’ road troubles. Perhaps Jojo shares some of Harden’s vices?)
2. Which players will be most impacted?
It's long been pointed out that some players seem to be officiated... differently on most nights in the NBA.
Academic studies have confirmed what fans have always known: that referees are, in fact, influenced by being screamed at by thousands of fans. So what happens when the only fans in attendance are beamed in by Microsoft on a lag delay? The average star shoots 7% more free throws at home, although some benefit even more than that:
What will happen to players who particularly enjoy that home cooking from the refs? Early results suggest it won’t impact them too much.
3. Which teams will be most impacted by losing home court?
Our early candidates:
The Lakers. Going from potentially 7 home games to empty virtual seats has gotta sting.
The altitude teams. Sorry, Nuggets/Jazz, your season long conditioning advantage is suddenly meaningless.
The Celtics. It’s much harder to get away with the time-honored Boston tradition of cheating away from home.
And this just scratches the surface. Will Marc Gasol start getting called for moving screens? Will Lou Williams continue to average a four-point play a game? Will Ersan Ilyasova continue to ring up the charge card? For some NBA players, a key part of their game is an ability to 'manage the refs'. For others, it's 'punching people in the nuts'. Who will adapt first to the NBA's new normal? Can we still vote for Rasheed Wallace?
TWEET OF THE WEEK
SOME GOOD READS
Christie’s game worn Jordans auction. Okay, okay, we’re mostly here for the photos:
The Shattered Backboard Jordans. Christie’s estimate: $650k-850k.
NBA owners face a very different economic environment next season. Several owners could be loath to stomach what could be significant losses due to the impact to their own businesses (Tilman Fertitta’s restaurants, Herb Simon’s malls, and Micky Arison’s cruise ship empire all look dicey).
Chris Kirschner’s Magic City wings review (subscription required). No, we’re not ready to leave this topic behind yet.
They had a perfect amount of crisp, not much breading to make it thick like fried chicken but enough to give the skin a crunchy texture. The meat inside was juicy and yet fully cooked. It pulled right off the bone without much fight. And the sauce. Oh, the sauce. It had a combination of sweet and smoky, with the lemon pepper seasoning giving it some zing. The flavors just explode in your mouth. The wings weren’t swimming in sauce so as to not be too messy. But it was enough to leave you licking your fingers.
STL INVESTIGATES
Hey, remember that time that noted NBA foreigner Rudy Gobert gave America the Coronavirus?
Donovan Mitchell does. The league was rife with speculation that the rift between the two players was something that could quietly incubate in the Jazz locker room like a... virus or something. But how would this manifest itself on the court? STL investigates:
At first glance, all seems rosy. The pass that Spida threw to Rudy ended up leading to the game winning free throws:
But a closer examination suggests all is not well in the Magic Kingdom. For the season, Donovan hit the roll man with a pass on 35% of his ballhandler pick & roll possessions, per Synergy. In their first game back, Donovan handled the ball on 14 P&Rs… and passed to Rudy once.
So, does Donovan Mitchell hate Rudy Gobert with a burning and fiery passion that knows no bounds? We leave it to our readers to decide...
AT THE BUZZER
Billy Beane launches a SPAC. (What’s a SPAC?)
The amazing new split screen Nike ad.
Disney World: Where dreams come true. Turner sells out advertising for the season.
Henry Abbott on Lebron James’ incredible self motivation.
NBA analyst / podcaster Nate Duncan throws one down at age 40.
Enjoying the restart in the bubble so far? Good, because union prez Michelle Roberts says next season may be in a bubble, too.
Canceled college sports put millions on the line for ESPN.
Ballers part deux: Tracy McGrady and Jermaine O’Neal start their own sports agency.
Seth Partnow: 22 numbers on the 22 teams in the bubble (subscription required).
Who’s behind those NBA Bubble Life tweets? Some bored 30-somethings with time on their hands.
Remember what happened to Deadspin? Looks like they are back. They don’t seem over it.
If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, please subscribe.
[1] Okay sure, there have been regular season games played abroad. And the Hornets played an entire season on an “alternate” home court. But you get the gist.