What the Mock Offseason says about the modern NBA
Mock vs. Actual vs. BORD$ -- got that? Plus, we pat ourselves on the back, x-rated turtle GIFs and more
Programming note: STL enters its offseason after this week. We’ll be back in a few weeks. As always, thanks for reading.
OPENING TIP
The dust has settled on free agency, and despite the frenetic coverage from the NBA media, not much has changed. Miami looks a little better, Chicago looks older and riskier, and David Griffin’s job security looks a lot worse, but otherwise, the NBA of this week is not too different than it was when the season ended. For fans who get more entertainment from NBA mating season than actually watching the games, that might have been a disappointment; we’re just pumped that no other super teams emerged, and the title race seems wide open.
There are many NBA subcultures. Regardless of how crazy your preferred means of engaging with NBA content (sneakerhead? Xs and Os junky? Gutter Groupie?) may be, there’s a like-minded clan out there waiting for you. As will surprise no one, our favorites are the Cap Geeks: the fans who can explain the difference between an Early Termination Option and a Player Option, or how a player can gain a “virtual no trade clause” because of their Bird rights. The spiritual podcast home of such fans is Dunc’d On, Nate Duncan’s podcast that (along with cohost Danny Leroux) dives deep into the team-building process for every team in the NBA.
A delightfully nerdy Dunc’d On’s annual tradition is the Mock Offseason, in which Nate and Danny are joined by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton and NBC Sports’ Dan Feldman to simulate how NBA free agency will turn out. These are some of the brightest, most detail oriented people in the game, and we frankly would take some of their calls over a sizable portion of league GMs. At the very least, their predictions are a good proxy for how the ‘analytics set’ values players. We’ve compared these results to what actually happened for the 47 players signed as of 8/11 (Kawhi’s new contract didn’t make the deadline) that were included in the Mock Offseason. The results are fascinating.
Overall, the Mockers impressed quite a bit. Mock Total Contract Value (e.g. total dollars committed, regardless of options or guarantees) was 84% correlated with actual TCV, and Mock Average Annual Value (total dollars committed divided by total years) was 87% correlated.
Many contracts are very close to the diagonal line that would be perfect correlation. Spending was fairly close to expectations: the Mockers predicted $569M of average annual value to the players in our sample, and teams actually handed out $540M of AAV. That said, not every contract was in line with expectations.
A few things stood out. Point Guards proliferated on the underpaid list (led by poster boy Dennis “I spit on your 4/$84M contract extension” Schroder), likely driven by the quantity of available talent at that position both in general and available this offseason. Also, several on-ball wings appear overpaid. To look closer at these trends, we classified each free agent as either a Point Guard, Scoring Guard, Off Ball Guard, On Ball Wing, Off Ball Wing, or Big, and compared what they got to Mock Offseason predictions. Lo and behold, NBA GM’s continue to be thirsty for wings with ball skills:
What really matters here is relative ratio. The Mock Offseason all player types by 11% , except On Ball Wings, which were undervalued by by 34% relative to actual NBA teams. It’s tempting to blame this all on DeMar DeRozan—but our real takeaway is that NBA GMs have a fever, and the only prescription is more… playmaking wing players.
To cap things off, we compared John Hollinger’s BORD$ estimates for each player to what they actually got and what the Mock Offseason predicted. Here are the five players with the biggest disparity in values:
Our reactions:
Poor Andre Drummond. The guy went from expecting a huge payday in the 2019-2020 offseason, to opting in when all the Center suitors disappeared, to signing to the league minimum in order to backup “Troel” Embiid, a guy who has tormented him over the years. The Sixers may have themselves a bargain, if Drummond doesn’t kill Embiid in the locker room:
Bruce Brown can’t get any love. This guy was a difference maker in the playoffs for Brooklyn less than a year after being given away by the Pistons, and yet has to sign for the qualifying offer.
Bulls head of basketball ops Artūras Karnišovas is making a huge bet on DeMar DeRozan, as both BORD and the Mock valued him quite similarly. Kudos to DeMar’s agent for hiring Russian hackers to delete all film of him playing defense from Synergy…
BORD is crazy low on Gary Trent. He wasn’t super efficient from 2 last season and struggles defending bigger wings, but it’s hard to not see him as a $15M plus player, as both the Mock and actual GMs both did.
Will DeRozan rise to the level of his contract, or will the nerds turn out right? Will Schroder make back the money he left on the table? Will STL ever stop nailing future predictions? Time will tell, but our money is on the nerds.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Players in the NBA have gotten so much more media savvy, and sophisticated. Until they start giving interviews in foreign countries….
STL INVESTIGATES: BEING RIGHT ALL THE TIME
Time, it has been noted by well known physicist Mathew McConaughey, is a flat circle.
As such, it really shouldn’t that hard for so many media members to predict NBA outcomes (unless we’re misunderstanding the metaphor here… it’s been a while since we watched True Detective). What we’re trying to get at is this: making NBA predictions is a fools errand. John Hollinger, one of our very favorite journalists and underrated tweeter, predicted, among other things, Luka Doncic for MVP, Donte DiVincenzo for 6th man of the Year, and Rick Carlisle for Coach of the Year. Ouch. Meanwhile Zach Lowe, another legendary NBA analyst, had the Suns scraping into the play-in in the West, narrowly edging out the Rockets. Now these guys had hits too, but the point remains: predicting the future is hard.
However, there is always the exception that proves the rule, and so it’s only fair that we bring your attention to a publication that absolutely killed it over the last eight months of basketball. The publication in question is a newsletter, and it’s called Save The Lottery, and dear lord, do the folks over there know their stuff!
As the NBA season concludes, in the interests of balance and transparency, we take a look back at our preseason predictions, ranked on the McConaughey scale.
On win totals:
Looking back at the win totals chart, we see superstar laden teams like the Lakers, Clippers, and Bucks with reduced totals.
5 McConaugheys: all the heaviest hitters had reduced totals, and playoff races were tighter across the board.
On depth:
The schedule and COVID risk have increased the importance of roster depth this year. Consider the Atlanta Hawks, who Vegas has penciled in for an extra twelve wins this year. Atlanta drastically improved their rotation….
5 McConaugheys: Depth mattered more than perhaps ever before, and the Hawks Eastern Conference Finals appearance shocked everyone else.
On returning to the bubble for the playoffs:
-200 LeBron has already reserved the Presidential Suite in the Gran Destino.
0 McConaugheys: STL forgot that the the true factor wasn’t how bad the virus was, it was how sick of quarantining everyone got.
On which stars would be moving on:
-300 Harden, +125 Victor Oladipo, +150 John Collins, +200 Bradley Beal, +500 Kyle Lowry.
3 McConaugheys: Not bad, but John Collins and Beal both enjoyed home cooking more than we predicted.
On which teams would make the leap:
+150 Suns, +200 Hawks, +250 Pelicans, +500 Cavs. Not listed: Bulls +10,000. Sorry Chicago fans.
4 McConaugheys: Suns and Hawks? Heck yeah. The Pelicans keep this from Nostradamus territory.
On which teams went in the tank:
-150 Rockets, +200 Raps, +300 Sixers, +400 Warriors.
3 McConaugheys: Rockets and Raps fired up the M-1 Abrams; the Sixers, on the other hand, most decidedly did not.
On players exceeding expectations:
+200 Christian Wood, +400 Mikal Bridges, +1000 Darius Garland, +1500 Chris Boucher.
4 McConaugheys: Some excellent calls here, but Darius Garland (and a complete miss on MIP Julius Randle) keep this from being 5 stars (heads?).
On major League announcements:
-150 permanent suspension of cannabis testing, +300 League expansion, +500 CBA renegotiation , +2,000 4-point shot, +5,000 Elam Ending in the playoffs.
TBD: there is still a little time left here, and let’s be honest, who would bet against us at this point?
AT THE BUZZER
Andre Drummond rescues his son from the pool (Streamable)
Hollinger’s free agency winners and losers (The Athletic, $)
Summer league overreaction season (NBA Big Board, $)
Cam Thomas for the win in Sudden Death double overtime (Streamable)